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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Orubah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.

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Full Analysis

Al-Jouf University Stadium plays host to Al Orubah versus Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Thursday 30 January 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Al Orubah's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Al Orubah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Orubah's home record at Al-Jouf University Stadium: 2W 0D 5L from 7 Pro League appearances (0.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.29 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game.

Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the stronger side — 1.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Al Orubah have seen both teams score in just 0% of their matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Orubah lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Al Orubah half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 59% of games.

Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Orubah 24% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 41%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Orubah 53% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Orubah 0.57 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Orubah attack 0.464 / defence 1.357 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.969 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.386. Al Orubah's attack strength of 0.464 is below the league average — the 0.57 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Al Orubah games / 51 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Orubah 11% | Draw 21% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 68%. Fair-value odds: Al Orubah 9.09 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (68%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Orubah 0% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% BTTS from recent games.

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