Al-Fayha 0-4 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Al-Ahli Jeddah travel to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al-Fayha. The game is scheduled for Thursday 14 December 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fayha stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 1W 5D 4L at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 3W 1D 3L from 7 away games — 1.43 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.43 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Al-Fayha) versus 1.60 (Al-Ahli Jeddah). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Fayha, 0 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 14% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 62% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 50% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.27 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.747 / defence 1.063 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.415 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.378. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah have an above-average attack strength of 1.415 — the away xG of 2.07 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Al-Fayha games / 16 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 22% | Draw 23% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 55%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 4.55 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 2.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 40% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 71% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 14 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 22% | Draw 23% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Fayha 1.27 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.747 / def 1.063 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.415 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
2.07
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 14 December 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Fayha 0 - 4 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 22% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 55% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (0.75) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 2.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
22%
4.49
23%
4.42
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
3.35
2.07
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
4.49
22%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
13%
7.96
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
3%
35.71
15%
6.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 2.07 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 4W 7D 5L from 16 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 9W 4D 3L across 16 games — 1.94 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Fayha have managed 0W 4D 3L from 7 games — 0.57 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.19 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 3W 1D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ahli Jeddah's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.00 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fayha have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 4W 7D 5L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 9W 4D 3L in their last 16 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 0.57 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 8 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2025, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha tend to start slowly — only 14% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 29%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Al-Fayha) and 86% (Al-Ahli Jeddah). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 86% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 71% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 71% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 29% of Al-Fayha's matches and 86% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 14% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Fayha 0-4 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.27 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.07 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Al-Fayha fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al-Ahli Jeddah outscored their 2.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.75 / defence 1.06 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.42 / defence 1.09, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 22% | Draw 23% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 55%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 50%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.