Al-Raed 0-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Damac at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Damac encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Raed host Damac at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 15 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Raed — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Raed have posted 4W 1D 5L at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Damac have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Damac — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al-Raed, 2 for Damac and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2023, ended 5–0 with Al-Raed winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Damac in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 54% versus Damac 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 67% | Damac 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.47 xG and Damac 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.935 / defence 1.087 | Damac attack 1.062 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.398. Data: 46 Al-Raed games / 46 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 34% | Draw 26% | Damac 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Damac 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Raed 40% | Damac 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 34% | Draw 26% | Damac 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Al-Raed 1.47 / Damac 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.935 / def 1.087 | Damac attack 1.062 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.398 • Poisson stance: Damac (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Damac xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Damac kick off?
Al-Raed vs Damac kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 15 December 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Damac?
Al-Raed 0 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al-Raed vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Damac part of?
Al-Raed vs Damac is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 34% chance of winning, Damac a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Raed and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Damac?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Raed 2W | Draws 0 | Damac 2W.
What form are Al-Raed and Damac in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Damac (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Raed's attack at 0.94x the league average against Damac's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
34%
2.94
26%
3.89
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
3.08
1.61
Damac xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
7%
14.76
9%
10.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.61 for Damac, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Raed's recent record stands at 12W 11D 23L from 46 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac, meanwhile, have gone 15W 15D 16L across 46 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Raed on 1.02 PPG, Damac on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Raed have managed 8W 3D 12L from 23 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Damac's away record stands at 6W 6D 11L across 23 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al-Raed are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.39 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Damac in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 12W 11D 23L in their last 46 games (1.02 PPG), while Damac have gone 15W 15D 16L in their last 46 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Damac away?
Al-Raed's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.17 PPG; Damac away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Raed and Damac runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Damac go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2023, when Al-Raed won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Damac specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al-Raed
1
Draws
5
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Damac?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 2, Damac have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Damac 1-0 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Damac?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 56%, Damac 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Al-Raed and 52% for Damac. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed have failed to score in 26% of games; Damac in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Al-Raed's games and 56% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Raed vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Al-Raed's matches and 52% of Damac's.
Do Al-Raed and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Damac in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Damac edge out Al-Raed 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al-Raed 0-1 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.47 xG and Damac 1.61 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Raed fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.94 / defence 1.09 against Damac attack 1.06 / defence 1.02, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 34% | Draw 26% | Damac 40%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 67%, Damac 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Damac's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.02 PPG, Damac 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Damac (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.