Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 74% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh meet at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 10W 0D 0L from their last 10 home games — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fateh's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Fateh's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 2.20 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Al-Fateh's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 3 for Al-Fateh and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Dec 2025, ended Al-Ahli Jeddah 1–2 Al-Fateh — a Al-Fateh win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 47% versus Al-Fateh 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Al-Fateh 55%). Note also that Al-Fateh surrender HT leads in 41% of cases while Al-Ahli Jeddah recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 64% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.49 xG and Al-Fateh 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.546 / defence 0.687 | Al-Fateh attack 0.802 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.411. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack rating of 1.546 — their 2.49 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah have a tight defence (rating 0.687), which is pulling Al-Fateh's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 64 games and Al-Fateh's last 64.
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 74% | Draw 17% | Al-Fateh 9%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.35 | Draw 5.99 | Al-Fateh 10.99. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (74%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 10 home games and Al-Fateh's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fateh 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, matchday 28 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 74% | Draw 17% | Al-Fateh 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.49 / Al-Fateh 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.546 / def 0.687 | Al-Fateh attack 0.802 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Al-Fateh xG
50%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh FAQs
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Wednesday 6 May 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh is a Pro League fixture (matchday 28) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 74% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 9% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking strength (1.55x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.49. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (0.80x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 64 games and Al-Fateh's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.8%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
74%
1.35
17%
5.99
9%
10.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.27
0.78
Al-Fateh xG
1.35
74%
Home win
5.99
17%
Draw
10.99
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
8%
12.03
Win to Nil
34%
2.93
1%
132.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.78 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 2.12 PPG on a 42W 10D 12L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Al-Fateh's form line: 19W 15D 30L from 64 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-D.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 2.32 PPG from their last 31 home games (22W 6D 3L).
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 6W 8D 17L from their last 31 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.33 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 67%.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Current Season
Al-Fateh
Current Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah (Home) vs Al-Fateh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Current Season
Al-Fateh
Current Season
❓ Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 42W 10D 12L in their last 64 games (2.12 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 19W 15D 30L in their last 64 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.32 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Fateh won Al-Fateh 5-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Al-Ahli Jeddah
2
Draws
3
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 4, Al-Fateh have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: Al-Fateh 0-4 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 86% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 61%, Al-Fateh 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 48% (Al-Fateh). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Al-Fateh in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 58% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 48% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 77% of Al-Fateh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Fateh 3-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.49 xG and Al-Fateh 0.78 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.55 / defence 0.69 against Al-Fateh attack 0.80 / defence 1.06, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 74% | Draw 17% | Al-Fateh 9%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 74%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%, Al-Fateh 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.