Sporting CP 1-0 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sporting CP (78%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Sporting CP face Famalicao.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sporting CP and Famalicao meet at Estádio José Alvalade in Primeira Liga (matchday 22). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 20:30 UK time.
Current Form
Sporting CP's record over their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sporting CP's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Famalicao (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Famalicao away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Sporting CP's favour (2.40 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Sporting CP's last 10 home games and Famalicao's last 10 away games) — Sporting CP have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Famalicao in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Sporting CP, who have won 8 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against Famalicao — Famalicao have 0 wins, with 0 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2025, ended Sporting CP 2–1 Famalicao — a Sporting CP win.
The head-to-head data gives Sporting CP an edge — 8 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Sporting CP — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Famalicao — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sporting CP 53% versus Famalicao 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sporting CP 67% | Famalicao 49%). Note also that Famalicao surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while Sporting CP recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 67% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sporting CP 2.45 xG and Famalicao 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sporting CP attack 1.521 / defence 0.655 | Famalicao attack 0.751 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.219. Sporting CP carry an above-average attack rating of 1.521 — their 2.45 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Famalicao's attack rating of 0.751 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.60. Sporting CP have a tight defence (rating 0.655), which is pulling Famalicao's projected output down. Data: built from Sporting CP's last 55 games and Famalicao's last 55.
Result probabilities: Sporting CP 78% | Draw 15% | Famalicao 7%. Fair-value odds: Sporting CP 1.28 | Draw 6.78 | Famalicao 13.97. The model has a clear lean to Sporting CP (78%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sporting CP are the pick at 78% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sporting CP's last 10 home games and Famalicao's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sporting CP 30% (last 10 home games) | Famalicao 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sporting CP vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 22 | Venue: Estádio José Alvalade • Kick-off: Sunday 15 February 2026 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sporting CP 78% | Draw 15% | Famalicao 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Sporting CP 2.45 / Famalicao 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Sporting CP attack 1.521 / def 0.655 | Famalicao attack 0.751 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.45
Sporting CP xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Famalicao xG
41%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sporting CP vs Famalicao FAQs
What time does Sporting CP vs Famalicao kick off?
Sporting CP vs Famalicao kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Estádio José Alvalade.
What was the final score in Sporting CP vs Famalicao?
Sporting CP 1 - 0 Famalicao.
Where is Sporting CP vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Alvalade.
What competition is Sporting CP vs Famalicao part of?
Sporting CP vs Famalicao is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 22) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Sporting CP vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Sporting CP a 78% chance of winning, Famalicao a 7% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sporting CP vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Sporting CP and Famalicao will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Sporting CP vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sporting CP's attack at 1.52x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 2.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (0.75x) against Sporting CP's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 0.60.
These ratings are built from Sporting CP's last 55 games and Famalicao's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
78%
1.28
15%
6.78
7%
13.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
3 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.45
Sporting CP xG
Total xG
3.04
0.60
Famalicao xG
1.28
78%
Home win
6.78
15%
Draw
13.97
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
55%
1.82
9%
11.54
Win to Nil
43%
2.33
1%
161.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.2 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sporting CP vs Famalicao Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sporting CP vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sporting CP and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 2.45 expected goals for Sporting CP and 0.60 for Famalicao, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Sporting CP vs Famalicao?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sporting CP's recent record stands at 41W 11D 3L from 55 games, a 2.44 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Famalicao, meanwhile, have gone 21W 16D 18L across 55 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sporting CP by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Famalicao heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sporting CP have managed 22W 3D 2L from their last 27 home games — 2.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Famalicao's away record stands at 9W 7D 11L across their last 27 away games, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sporting CP are averaging 2.60 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.29 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Famalicao in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sporting CP
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
Sporting CP (Home) vs Famalicao (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sporting CP
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Sporting CP vs Famalicao Form FAQs
What form are Sporting CP and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Sporting CP have gone 41W 11D 3L in their last 55 games (2.44 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 21W 16D 18L in their last 55 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sporting CP at home or Famalicao away?
Sporting CP's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sporting CP at home: 2.56 PPG; Famalicao away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Sporting CP or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Famalicao in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to February 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sporting CP won Famalicao 0-3 Sporting CP on 26 Oct 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sporting CP have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Sporting CP
1
Draws
0
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Sporting CP vs Famalicao H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Famalicao?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sporting CP have won 9, Famalicao have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sporting CP and Famalicao last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Famalicao 1-1 Sporting CP.
Who has won more matches between Sporting CP and Famalicao?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sporting CP 48%, Famalicao 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Sporting CP) and 52% (Famalicao). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sporting CP keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sporting CP home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sporting CP vs Famalicao Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sporting CP and Famalicao matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sporting CP's recent matches and 56% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sporting CP and Famalicao matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sporting CP's matches and 52% of Famalicao's.
Do Sporting CP and Famalicao matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Sporting CP's recent matches and 70% of Famalicao's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sporting CP edge out Famalicao 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Famalicao 1-0 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 2.45 xG and Famalicao 0.60 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sporting CP fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.52 / defence 0.66 against Famalicao attack 0.75 / defence 1.03, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 78% | Draw 15% | Famalicao 7%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 78%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 67%, Famalicao 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sporting CP's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Famalicao's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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