🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Sporting CP (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Moreirense face Sporting CP.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Sporting CP travel to Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas to take on Moreirense. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Moreirense stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Moreirense, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Moreirense's home record at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Moreirense are significantly better at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas than their overall form suggests.

Sporting CP — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Sporting CP have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sporting CP — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Moreirense register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sporting CP in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Sporting CP, who boast 6 victories compared to 1 for Moreirense.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2025, ended 0–3 with Sporting CP winning.

It is worth noting that Sporting CP have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Data

Moreirense trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Sporting CP trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Moreirense 57% versus Sporting CP 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Moreirense 55% | Sporting CP 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Moreirense 0.99 xG and Sporting CP 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moreirense attack 0.910 / defence 1.112 | Sporting CP attack 1.370 / defence 0.704. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.212. Sporting CP's defence strength of 0.704 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sporting CP have an above-average attack strength of 1.370 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Moreirense games / 56 Sporting CP games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Moreirense 20% | Draw 23% | Sporting CP 57%. Fair-value odds: Moreirense 5.00 | Draw 4.35 | Sporting CP 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Sporting CP (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sporting CP at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Moreirense 60% | Sporting CP 80% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights