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Poisson rates Casa Pia at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Casa Pia vs Arouca encounter.

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Full Analysis

Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior plays host to Casa Pia versus Arouca in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Casa Pia have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Casa Pia have posted 1W 5D 4L at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Arouca (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Arouca have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Casa Pia, 1.40 for Arouca — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

Historically, Casa Pia have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 7 meetings, with Arouca managing just 1 victories and 2 draws shared.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game from 7 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 2–0 with Casa Pia winning.

The historical record gives Casa Pia a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

Casa Pia half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Arouca half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 54% versus Arouca 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 47% | Arouca 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.67 xG and Arouca 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.932 / defence 1.217 | Arouca attack 0.979 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.248. Data: 55 Casa Pia games / 55 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Casa Pia 42% | Draw 24% | Arouca 34%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Arouca 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Casa Pia are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Casa Pia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Casa Pia 60% | Arouca 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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