🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Tondela at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tondela vs Alverca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Tondela and Alverca meet at Estádio João Cardoso in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 February 2026 at 20:45 UTC.

Current Form

Tondela's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Tondela, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Tondela's home record at Estádio João Cardoso: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Alverca (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alverca, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Alverca have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Alverca are 0.50 PPG clear of Tondela in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Tondela, 1 for Alverca and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Alverca winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Tondela half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 30% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 62% of games.

Alverca half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tondela 33% versus Alverca 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tondela 57% | Alverca 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tondela 1.25 xG and Alverca 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tondela attack 0.629 / defence 0.976 | Alverca attack 0.772 / defence 1.293. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.248. Tondela's attack strength of 0.629 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Alverca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.293 — this is suppressing Tondela's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Tondela games / 21 Alverca games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Tondela 43% | Draw 29% | Alverca 28%. Fair-value odds: Tondela 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Alverca 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Tondela as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Alverca (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tondela if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Tondela 30% | Alverca 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights