GIL Vicente 2-1 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 39%, yet in-form SC Braga provide a compelling counter-argument — this GIL Vicente vs SC Braga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees SC Braga travel to Estádio Cidade de Barcelos to take on GIL Vicente. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026, 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, GIL Vicente have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — GIL Vicente are significantly better at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos than their overall form suggests.
SC Braga — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Braga's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SC Braga are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
SC Braga have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 9 encounters against GIL Vicente's 2 victories.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 9 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with GIL Vicente winning.
It is worth noting that SC Braga have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
GIL Vicente trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
SC Braga trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 46% versus SC Braga 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 42% | SC Braga 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.42 xG and SC Braga 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.176 / defence 0.811 | SC Braga attack 1.326 / defence 0.781. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.251. SC Braga's defence strength of 0.781 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. SC Braga have an above-average attack strength of 1.326 — the away xG of 1.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 GIL Vicente games / 55 SC Braga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 39% | Draw 25% | SC Braga 35%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | SC Braga 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIL Vicente are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SC Braga (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: GIL Vicente 30% | SC Braga 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 39% | Draw 25% | SC Braga 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG GIL Vicente 1.42 / SC Braga 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 1.176 / def 0.811 | SC Braga attack 1.326 / def 0.781 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
1.34
SC Braga xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs SC Braga kick off?
GIL Vicente vs SC Braga kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
GIL Vicente 2 - 1 SC Braga.
Where is GIL Vicente vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs SC Braga part of?
GIL Vicente vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 39% chance of winning, SC Braga a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both GIL Vicente and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and SC Braga?
Record (9 meetings): GIL Vicente 2W | Draws 2 | SC Braga 5W.
What form are GIL Vicente and SC Braga in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. SC Braga (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
GIL Vicente's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against SC Braga's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, SC Braga's attack versus GIL Vicente's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
39%
2.56
25%
3.93
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.77
1.34
SC Braga xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
9%
11.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.0 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 1.34 for SC Braga, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
GIL Vicente come into this having played 55 games, going 18W 17D 20L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Braga sit at 1.91 PPG from 55 outings (30W 15D 10L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Braga carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
GIL Vicente's home form reads 11W 7D 9L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Braga have taken 1.85 points per game from 27 outings (14W 8D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 1.80 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: SC Braga in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
SC Braga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and SC Braga in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 18W 17D 20L in their last 55 games (1.29 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 30W 15D 10L in their last 55 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or SC Braga away?
SC Braga's away record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.48 PPG; SC Braga away: 1.85 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or SC Braga been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, SC Braga in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
GIL Vicente have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
GIL Vicente's record when hosting SC Braga specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
GIL Vicente
2
Draws
5
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and SC Braga?
From 10 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 3, SC Braga have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when GIL Vicente 2-1 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and SC Braga?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 41%, SC Braga 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (GIL Vicente) and 52% (SC Braga).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SC Braga in 44%; GIL Vicente have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play SC Braga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 52% of SC Braga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs SC Braga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 52% of SC Braga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and SC Braga tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, SC Braga in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as GIL Vicente edge out SC Braga 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente beat SC Braga 2-1 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.42 xG and SC Braga 1.34 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.18 / defence 0.81 against SC Braga attack 1.33 / defence 0.78, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 39% | Draw 25% | SC Braga 35%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 42%, SC Braga 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
SC Braga's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.29. Form was overturned, with GIL Vicente winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SC Braga (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.