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Poisson rates Guimaraes at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guimaraes vs Estrela encounter.

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Analysis

Estrela make the trip to Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques to face Guimaraes in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

Guimaraes (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Guimaraes, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimaraes have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Estrela have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Estrela, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Estrela have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Guimaraes against 1.20 for Estrela. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Historically, Guimaraes have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Estrela managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 2–0 with Guimaraes winning.

The historical record gives Guimaraes a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

Guimaraes half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Estrela half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guimaraes 40% versus Estrela 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guimaraes 46% | Estrela 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guimaraes 1.78 xG and Estrela 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guimaraes attack 0.925 / defence 0.927 | Estrela attack 0.993 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.252. Estrela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Guimaraes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Guimaraes games / 55 Estrela games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guimaraes 52% | Draw 23% | Estrela 25%. Fair-value odds: Guimaraes 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Estrela 4.00. Guimaraes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Guimaraes at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guimaraes if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Guimaraes 50% | Estrela 50%.

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