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Poisson model favours Estoril (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AVS face Estoril.

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Match Analysis

AVS host Estoril at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 February 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Primeira Liga games this season, AVS have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.20 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for AVS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

AVS at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 home games — 0.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

Estoril — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Estoril have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Estoril — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, AVS have won 0, Estoril 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 1–3 with Estoril winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

AVS in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

Estoril in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AVS 47% versus Estoril 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AVS 53% | Estoril 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects AVS 1.08 xG and Estoril 2.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AVS attack 0.621 / defence 1.437 | Estoril attack 1.498 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.242. AVS's attack strength of 0.621 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Estoril have an above-average attack strength of 1.498 — the away xG of 2.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 AVS games / 55 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: AVS 13% | Draw 16% | Estoril 71%. Fair-value odds: AVS 7.69 | Draw 6.25 | Estoril 1.41. The model has a clear lean to Estoril (71%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.08 / 2.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Estoril at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

Poisson projects 3.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: AVS 50% | Estoril 50%.

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