Santa Clara 1-2 Benfica – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Benfica (59%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Santa Clara face Benfica.

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Analysis

Benfica make the trip to Estádio de São Miguel to face Santa Clara in Primeira Liga (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Friday 13 February 2026 at 18:30 UK time.

Form

Santa Clara (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home, Santa Clara have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Santa Clara are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Benfica have collected 2.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Benfica's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 road games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Benfica arrive in superior form — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Benfica have the stronger record — 6 wins to Santa Clara's 0, with 1 draw.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.1 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 12 Sep 2025, ended Santa Clara 1–1 Benfica — a draw.

The H2H data backs the away side. Benfica have won 6 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.1 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading & In-Play

Santa Clara — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Benfica — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 40% versus Benfica 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 31% | Benfica 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 0.65 xG and Benfica 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 0.697 / defence 1.007 | Benfica attack 1.239 / defence 0.611. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.244. Santa Clara's attack rating of 0.697 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.65. Benfica bring a tight defence (rating 0.611, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Santa Clara's projected output down. Benfica have an above-average attack rating of 1.239, which lifts their away xG to 1.55. Data: built from Santa Clara's last 55 games and Benfica's last 55.

Result probabilities: Santa Clara 16% | Draw 25% | Benfica 59%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 6.42 | Draw 3.94 | Benfica 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (59%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Santa Clara's last 10 home games and Benfica's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Santa Clara 40% (last 10 home games) | Benfica 30% (last 10 away games).

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