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Poisson model rates Santa Clara at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estrela vs Santa Clara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Estrela host Santa Clara at Estádio José Gomes in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Estrela — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Estrela, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Estrela have posted 2W 4D 4L at Estádio José Gomes — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Santa Clara have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Santa Clara have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Estrela at 1.00 PPG versus Santa Clara's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Estrela, 1 for Santa Clara and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Estrela trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.

Santa Clara trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estrela 39% versus Santa Clara 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Estrela 41% | Santa Clara 32%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Estrela 1.25 xG and Santa Clara 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estrela attack 0.884 / defence 1.269 | Santa Clara attack 0.843 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.250. Data: 54 Estrela games / 54 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Estrela 35% | Draw 26% | Santa Clara 39%. Fair-value odds: Estrela 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Santa Clara 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Santa Clara as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santa Clara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 0.3 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Estrela 50% | Santa Clara 50%.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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