Casa Pia 3-2 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Casa Pia at 42% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Casa Pia vs Arouca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior plays host to Casa Pia versus Arouca in Primeira Liga (matchday 22). Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Casa Pia have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Casa Pia have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Arouca (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Arouca have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Casa Pia, 1.40 for Arouca — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Casa Pia have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Arouca managing 1 and 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.4 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2025, ended Casa Pia 2–0 Arouca — a Casa Pia win.
The head-to-head data gives Casa Pia an edge — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
Casa Pia half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Arouca half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 54% versus Arouca 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 47% | Arouca 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.67 xG and Arouca 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.932 / defence 1.217 | Arouca attack 0.979 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.248. Casa Pia's defence rating of 1.217 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Arouca's projected output up. Data: built from Casa Pia's last 55 games and Arouca's last 55.
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 42% | Draw 24% | Arouca 34%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 2.37 | Draw 4.26 | Arouca 2.92. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.67 / 1.49) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Casa Pia are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Casa Pia 4 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Casa Pia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Casa Pia's last 10 home games and Arouca's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Casa Pia 60% (last 10 home games) | Arouca 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 22 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 42% | Draw 24% | Arouca 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Casa Pia 1.67 / Arouca 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.932 / def 1.217 | Arouca attack 0.979 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Casa Pia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Arouca xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Casa Pia vs Arouca FAQs
What time does Casa Pia vs Arouca kick off?
Casa Pia vs Arouca kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Arouca?
Casa Pia 3 - 2 Arouca.
Where is Casa Pia vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Arouca part of?
Casa Pia vs Arouca is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 22) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 42% chance of winning, Arouca a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Casa Pia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Casa Pia and Arouca will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Casa Pia vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Casa Pia's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Arouca's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (0.98x) against Casa Pia's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from Casa Pia's last 55 games and Arouca's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Casa Pia Win
42%
2.37
24%
4.26
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
3.16
1.49
Arouca xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.26
24%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
10%
10.47
6%
15.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Casa Pia vs Arouca Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.49 for Arouca, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Casa Pia's recent record stands at 16W 16D 23L from 55 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 15W 16D 24L across 55 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Casa Pia against 1.11 for Arouca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Casa Pia have managed 9W 9D 9L from their last 27 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arouca's away record stands at 7W 7D 13L across their last 27 away games, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Casa Pia are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.11 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Blended
Arouca
Blended
Casa Pia (Home) vs Arouca (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Casa Pia
Blended
Arouca
Blended
❓ Casa Pia vs Arouca Form FAQs
What form are Casa Pia and Arouca in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 16W 16D 23L in their last 55 games (1.16 PPG), while Arouca have gone 15W 16D 24L in their last 55 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Arouca away?
Casa Pia's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 1.33 PPG; Arouca away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Casa Pia and Arouca, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Casa Pia have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Casa Pia have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Casa Pia
2
Draws
1
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Casa Pia vs Arouca H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Arouca?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Casa Pia have won 5, Arouca have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Arouca last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: Casa Pia 3-2 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and Arouca?
Casa Pia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 63%, Arouca 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Casa Pia) and 67% (Arouca).
On the defensive side: Casa Pia have failed to score in 26% of games; Arouca in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Casa Pia vs Arouca Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Casa Pia and Arouca matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Casa Pia's games and 59% of Arouca's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Casa Pia and Arouca matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Casa Pia's recent games and 67% of Arouca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Arouca matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 74% of Arouca's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Casa Pia edge out Arouca 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia beat Arouca 3-2 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.67 xG and Arouca 1.49 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Casa Pia beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.93 / defence 1.22 against Arouca attack 0.98 / defence 1.17, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 42% | Draw 24% | Arouca 34%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 47%, Arouca 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Arouca's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.16 PPG, Arouca 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Casa Pia win broke the near-deadlock. Casa Pia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm. Arouca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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