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Poisson model rates Guimaraes at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arouca vs Guimaraes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Arouca and Guimaraes meet at Estádio Municipal de Arouca in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 February 2026 at 20:30 UTC.

Current Form

Arouca's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Arouca's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Estádio Municipal de Arouca this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

Guimaraes have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Guimaraes, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Guimaraes have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Guimaraes are 0.60 PPG clear of Arouca in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Arouca lead 2W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Arouca half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Guimaraes half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 54% versus Guimaraes 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 54% | Guimaraes 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 1.25 xG and Guimaraes 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 0.818 / defence 1.271 | Guimaraes attack 0.804 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.257. Data: 54 Arouca games / 54 Guimaraes games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Arouca 36% | Draw 27% | Guimaraes 37%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Guimaraes 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Guimaraes are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guimaraes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Arouca 50% | Guimaraes 10% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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