Nacional 0-0 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nacional at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nacional vs Casa Pia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Casa Pia travel to Estádio da Madeira to take on Nacional. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 February 2026, 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nacional stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Nacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nacional have posted 3W 2D 5L at Estádio da Madeira — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Casa Pia have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Casa Pia's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Nacional) versus 1.00 (Casa Pia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Nacional, 1 for Casa Pia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with Nacional winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Nacional trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Casa Pia trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nacional 48% versus Casa Pia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nacional 48% | Casa Pia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nacional 2.40 xG and Casa Pia 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nacional attack 1.270 / defence 1.208 | Casa Pia attack 0.865 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.264. Nacional carry an above-average attack strength of 1.270 — their λ of 2.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Casa Pia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Nacional's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Nacional games / 54 Casa Pia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nacional 61% | Draw 19% | Casa Pia 20%. Fair-value odds: Nacional 1.64 | Draw 5.26 | Casa Pia 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Nacional (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.72. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.72 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.40 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nacional are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.72 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nacional 70% | Casa Pia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nacional vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio da Madeira • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nacional 61% | Draw 19% | Casa Pia 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 67% | xG Nacional 2.40 / Casa Pia 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Nacional attack 1.270 / def 1.208 | Casa Pia attack 0.865 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Nacional (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Nacional xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Casa Pia xG
67%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nacional vs Casa Pia kick off?
Nacional vs Casa Pia kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Estádio da Madeira.
What was the final score in Nacional vs Casa Pia?
Nacional 0 - 0 Casa Pia.
Where is Nacional vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Madeira.
What competition is Nacional vs Casa Pia part of?
Nacional vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Nacional vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Nacional a 61% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 20% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Nacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nacional vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Nacional and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will Nacional vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nacional and Casa Pia?
Record (3 meetings): Nacional 2W | Draws 0 | Casa Pia 1W.
What form are Nacional and Casa Pia in?
Nacional (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Casa Pia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nacional's attack at 1.27x the league average against Casa Pia's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Casa Pia's attack versus Nacional's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 3-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nacional Win
61%
1.63
19%
5.31
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Nacional xG
Total xG
3.72
1.32
Casa Pia xG
1.63
61%
Home win
5.31
19%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
9%
10.97
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
2%
54.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nacional vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Nacional and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Nacional and 1.32 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 3.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Nacional vs Casa Pia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Nacional have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 14W 12D 28L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Casa Pia's form line: 16W 15D 23L from 54 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nacional on 1.00 PPG, Casa Pia on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nacional have posted 1.31 PPG from 26 outings (10W 4D 12L).
On the road, Casa Pia have gone 7W 6D 13L from 26 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Nacional are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 1.13 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nacional
Blended
Casa Pia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nacional and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
Nacional have gone 14W 12D 28L in their last 54 games (1.00 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 16W 15D 23L in their last 54 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nacional at home or Casa Pia away?
Nacional's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nacional at home: 1.31 PPG; Casa Pia away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Nacional's record when hosting Casa Pia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nacional
1
Draws
1
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nacional and Casa Pia?
From 4 meetings on record, Nacional have won 2, Casa Pia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nacional and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Nacional 0-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Nacional and Casa Pia?
Nacional have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nacional 54%, Casa Pia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Nacional) and 54% (Casa Pia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nacional have failed to score in 27% of games; Casa Pia in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nacional home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nacional play Casa Pia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Nacional's recent matches and 50% of Casa Pia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nacional vs Casa Pia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Nacional's matches and 54% of Casa Pia's.
Do Nacional and Casa Pia tend to score early?
Nacional have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Casa Pia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nacional's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 21, as Nacional and Casa Pia drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nacional 2.40 xG and Casa Pia 1.32 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nacional fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Casa Pia landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nacional attack 1.27 / defence 1.21 against Casa Pia attack 0.86 / defence 1.21, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nacional 61% | Draw 19% | Casa Pia 20%, with Nacional to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nacional 48%, Casa Pia 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nacional's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Casa Pia's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nacional 1.00 PPG, Casa Pia 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.