Zaglebie Lubin 1-3 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Zagłębia Lubin plays host to Zaglebie Lubin versus Slask Wroclaw in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 29 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Zaglebie Lubin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Zaglebie Lubin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slask Wroclaw (all games): 1W 4D 0L across 5 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Slask Wroclaw have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Zaglebie Lubin half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Slask Wroclaw half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 25% versus Slask Wroclaw 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 75% | Slask Wroclaw 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.42 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.219 / defence 1.041 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.877 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.128 / away 1.119. Data: 4 Zaglebie Lubin games / 5 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 44% | Draw 32% | Slask Wroclaw 24%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Slask Wroclaw 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Zaglebie Lubin 25% | Slask Wroclaw 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 44% | Draw 32% | Slask Wroclaw 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.42 / Slask Wroclaw 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.219 / def 1.041 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.877 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.128 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Slask Wroclaw xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Zaglebie Lubin 1 - 3 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 44% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 2W-0D-2L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-4D-0L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Zaglebie Lubin's attack at 1.22x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slask Wroclaw's attack (0.88x) against Zaglebie Lubin's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 4/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
44%
2.30
32%
3.12
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.44
1.02
Slask Wroclaw xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
6%
16.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.02 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zaglebie Lubin's recent record stands at 2W 0D 2L from 4 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slask Wroclaw, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 0L across 4 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-D-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Zaglebie Lubin against 1.50 for Slask Wroclaw. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.00 scored and 0.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zaglebie Lubin have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Slask Wroclaw in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
Slask Wroclaw
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 3D 0L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zaglebie Lubin won 0-3 on 28 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Slask Wroclaw — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Zaglebie Lubin
2
Draws
3
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw?
From 8 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, Slask Wroclaw have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Slask Wroclaw 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Slask Wroclaw see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 25%, Slask Wroclaw 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 25% (Slask Wroclaw).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Slask Wroclaw?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 75% of Slask Wroclaw's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 25% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slask Wroclaw cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-3 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.42 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.02 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.22 / defence 1.04 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.88 / defence 1.03, drawn from 4/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 44% | Draw 32% | Slask Wroclaw 24%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Slask Wroclaw win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 75%, Slask Wroclaw 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.50 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slask Wroclaw win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slask Wroclaw scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.