Lechia Gdansk 2-2 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lechia Gdansk at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Radomiak Radom travel to Stadion Energa Gdańsk to take on Lechia Gdansk. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 August 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lechia Gdansk stand at 2W 2D 1L from 5 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Lechia Gdansk have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 2W 1D 1L from 4 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.75 PPG. Last five: D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Lechia Gdansk) versus 1.75 (Radomiak Radom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Lechia Gdansk in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Lechia Gdansk 25% | Radomiak Radom 25%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lechia Gdansk 25% | Radomiak Radom 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.17 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.073 / defence 0.897 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.658 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.075. Data: 5 Lechia Gdansk games / 4 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 47% | Draw 35% | Radomiak Radom 18%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 2.13 | Draw 2.86 | Radomiak Radom 5.56. Lechia Gdansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Radomiak Radom's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lechia Gdansk are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.81 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lechia Gdansk 40% | Radomiak Radom 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Energa Gdańsk • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 47% | Draw 35% | Radomiak Radom 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 34% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.17 / Radomiak Radom 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.073 / def 0.897 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.658 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Radomiak Radom xG
34%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Stadion Energa Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom?
Lechia Gdansk 2 - 2 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Energa Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 47% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 18% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lechia Gdansk's attack rating (1.07) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Lechia Gdansk's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.6%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
47%
2.13
35%
2.85
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
1.81
0.64
Radomiak Radom xG
2.13
47%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.90
66%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
6%
17.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 10.4 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.2 | 12.2 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 0.64 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lechia Gdansk's recent record stands at 2W 1D 1L from 4 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 1L across 4 games — 1.75 PPG, with D-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lechia Gdansk on 1.75 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Radomiak Radom in 25%.
Defensively: Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Radomiak Radom in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
Have Lechia Gdansk or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Radomiak Radom have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when Radomiak Radom won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lechia Gdansk's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Lechia Gdansk
1
Draws
6
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom?
From 8 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 1, Radomiak Radom have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Radomiak Radom 3-1 Lechia Gdansk.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Lechia Gdansk 25% BTTS, Radomiak Radom 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Lechia Gdansk and 25% for Radomiak Radom.
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Radomiak Radom in 50%; Radomiak Radom in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 25% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 25% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Energa Gdańsk, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.17 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.64 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Radomiak Radom outscored their 0.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.07 / defence 0.90 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.66 / defence 0.94, drawn from 5/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 47% | Draw 35% | Radomiak Radom 18%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 25%, Radomiak Radom 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.75 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lechia Gdansk shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Radomiak Radom scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.