Wisla Krakow 1-0 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Krakow at 37%, yet in-form Legia Warszawa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Wisla Krakow vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Legia Warszawa travel to Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana to take on Wisla Krakow. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 August 2021, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Krakow have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Wisla Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 2W 0D 1L from 3 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Legia Warszawa are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Wisla Krakow in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
Legia Warszawa in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Krakow 100% and Legia Warszawa 33% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wisla Krakow 100% | Legia Warszawa 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 1.39 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 1.029 / defence 1.148 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.954 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.164. Legia Warszawa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Wisla Krakow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Wisla Krakow games / 3 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 37% | Draw 31% | Legia Warszawa 32%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Legia Warszawa 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wisla Krakow as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Legia Warszawa (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Krakow 80% | Legia Warszawa 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 37% | Draw 31% | Legia Warszawa 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Wisla Krakow 1.39 / Legia Warszawa 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Krakow attack 1.029 / def 1.148 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.954 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Wisla Krakow (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Wisla Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Legia Warszawa xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Krakow vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Wisla Krakow vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What was the final score in Wisla Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Wisla Krakow 1 - 0 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Wisla Krakow vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wisla Krakow vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Wisla Krakow vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Krakow a 37% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wisla Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Wisla Krakow and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Krakow vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Legia Warszawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wisla Krakow and Legia Warszawa in?
Wisla Krakow (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wisla Krakow's attack rating (1.03) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Wisla Krakow's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Krakow Win
37%
2.69
31%
3.25
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Wisla Krakow xG
Total xG
2.66
1.27
Legia Warszawa xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
10%
9.63
8%
12.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Wisla Krakow and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Wisla Krakow and 1.27 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wisla Krakow's recent record stands at 1W 0D 2L from 3 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Legia Warszawa, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 1L across 3 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Legia Warszawa by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wisla Krakow heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Wisla Krakow are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Krakow have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: Legia Warszawa in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Krakow
Early Season
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Krakow and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Wisla Krakow have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Wisla Krakow or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wisla Krakow and Legia Warszawa runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Wisla Krakow
0
Draws
1
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Legia Warszawa?
From 2 meetings on record, Wisla Krakow have won 1, Legia Warszawa have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Krakow and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2022, when Legia Warszawa 2-1 Wisla Krakow.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Wisla Krakow at 100%, Legia Warszawa at 33%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Wisla Krakow and 33% for Legia Warszawa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Krakow home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Krakow play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Wisla Krakow's games and 33% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wisla Krakow vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Wisla Krakow's matches and 33% of Legia Warszawa's.
Do Wisla Krakow and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Wisla Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wisla Krakow edge out Legia Warszawa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Krakow beat Legia Warszawa 1-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Krakow 1.39 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.27 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Legia Warszawa landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Krakow attack 1.03 / defence 1.15 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.95 / defence 1.20, drawn from 5/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Krakow 37% | Draw 31% | Legia Warszawa 32%, with Wisla Krakow to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Krakow 100%, Legia Warszawa 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Wisla Krakow winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wisla Krakow conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Legia Warszawa managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.