Wisla Plock 4-0 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 48%, yet in-form Zaglebie Lubin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego plays host to Wisla Plock versus Zaglebie Lubin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Friday 20 August 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wisla Plock have collected 0.75 PPG across 4 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 0D 3L. Last five: L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zaglebie Lubin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.33. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Zaglebie Lubin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zaglebie Lubin arrive in superior form — a 1.25 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.75) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Wisla Plock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Zaglebie Lubin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Wisla Plock 33% | Zaglebie Lubin 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 33% | Zaglebie Lubin 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.37 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.947 / defence 1.019 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.705 / defence 1.372. League average goals — home 1.054 / away 1.160. Zaglebie Lubin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.372 — this is suppressing Wisla Plock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Wisla Plock games / 3 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 48% | Draw 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 22%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Zaglebie Lubin 4.55. Wisla Plock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wisla Plock are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Zaglebie Lubin (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 25% | Zaglebie Lubin 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Friday 20 Aug 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 48% | Draw 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Wisla Plock 1.37 / Zaglebie Lubin 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.947 / def 1.019 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.705 / def 1.372 | league avg home 1.054 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Zaglebie Lubin xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 20 August 2021 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Wisla Plock 4 - 0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 48% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Wisla Plock and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Zaglebie Lubin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wisla Plock and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Wisla Plock's attack at 0.95x the league average against Zaglebie Lubin's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (0.70x) against Wisla Plock's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 4/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
48%
2.08
30%
3.29
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.20
0.83
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
5%
18.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.6 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 0.83 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Wisla Plock's recent record stands at 1W 0D 2L from 3 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zaglebie Lubin, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 1L across 3 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zaglebie Lubin by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wisla Plock heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 3 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Early Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Wisla Plock or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wisla Plock won 4-0 on 20 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wisla Plock have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Wisla Plock
0
Draws
3
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 3, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 2-0 Wisla Plock.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Wisla Plock) and 33% (Zaglebie Lubin) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Wisla Plock) and 67% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin in 33%; Wisla Plock have failed to score in 33% of games; Zaglebie Lubin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 33% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 67% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wisla Plock run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Zaglebie Lubin 4-0 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.37 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.83 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Wisla Plock beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zaglebie Lubin landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.95 / defence 1.02 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.70 / defence 1.37, drawn from 4/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 48% | Draw 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 22%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 33%, Zaglebie Lubin 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Zaglebie Lubin arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Wisla Plock winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wisla Plock scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.