Gornik Zabrze 0-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 6 as Gornik Zabrze welcome Piast Gliwice to Arena Zabrze. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Gornik Zabrze have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L W W. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Gornik Zabrze have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Piast Gliwice stand at 2W 1D 2L from 5 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gornik Zabrze at 1.50 PPG versus Piast Gliwice's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Gornik Zabrze trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Piast Gliwice trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 50% versus Piast Gliwice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gornik Zabrze 50% | Piast Gliwice 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 0.92 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.852 / defence 1.198 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.852 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.161 / away 1.122. Data: 4 Gornik Zabrze games / 5 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 26% | Draw 36% | Piast Gliwice 38%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 3.85 | Draw 2.78 | Piast Gliwice 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Gornik Zabrze 50% | Piast Gliwice 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Arena Zabrze • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 26% | Draw 36% | Piast Gliwice 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Gornik Zabrze 0.92 / Piast Gliwice 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.852 / def 1.198 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.852 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.161 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Piast Gliwice xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Arena Zabrze.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice?
Gornik Zabrze 0 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Arena Zabrze.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 26% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 38% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 2W-0D-2L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gornik Zabrze's attack at 0.85x the league average against Piast Gliwice's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Gornik Zabrze's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
26%
3.80
36%
2.82
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.06
1.14
Piast Gliwice xG
3.80
26%
Home win
2.82
36%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
8%
11.92
15%
6.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 14.6 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.14 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 4 outings, Gornik Zabrze have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 2W 0D 2L record — L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gornik Zabrze on 1.50 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 4 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Early Season
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gornik Zabrze have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Gornik Zabrze's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gornik Zabrze
3
Draws
3
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, Piast Gliwice have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 50%, Piast Gliwice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gornik Zabrze) and 25% (Piast Gliwice).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 50% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 25% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Piast Gliwice edge out Gornik Zabrze 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Gornik Zabrze 0-1 at Arena Zabrze, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 0.92 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.14 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gornik Zabrze fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 0.85 / defence 1.20 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.85 / defence 0.93, drawn from 4/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 26% | Draw 36% | Piast Gliwice 38%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 50%, Piast Gliwice 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.50 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Piast Gliwice conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.