Wisla Plock 1-1 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 55%, yet in-form Raków Częstochowa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego plays host to Wisla Plock versus Raków Częstochowa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 29 August 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Wisla Plock (all games): 2W 0D 3L across 5 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Raków Częstochowa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Raków Częstochowa are 0.80 PPG clear of Wisla Plock in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (2.00 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Wisla Plock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 33% versus Raków Częstochowa 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wisla Plock 67% | Raków Częstochowa 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.81 xG and Raków Częstochowa 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 1.208 / defence 0.901 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.974 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.118. Raków Częstochowa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Wisla Plock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Wisla Plock games / 3 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 55% | Draw 26% | Raków Częstochowa 19%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Raków Częstochowa 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Wisla Plock (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Plock at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Raków Częstochowa (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Plock 20% | Raków Częstochowa 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 55% | Draw 26% | Raków Częstochowa 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Wisla Plock 1.81 / Raków Częstochowa 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 1.208 / def 0.901 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.974 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Raków Częstochowa xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa?
Wisla Plock 1 - 1 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 55% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Wisla Plock and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Raków Częstochowa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wisla Plock and Raków Częstochowa in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 2W-0D-3L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wisla Plock's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (0.97x) against Wisla Plock's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 5/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.81
19%
5.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.79
0.98
Raków Częstochowa xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
5.37
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
16%
6.09
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
3%
32.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 0.98 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wisla Plock's recent record stands at 2W 0D 1L from 3 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 1L across 3 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Wisla Plock against 2.00 for Raków Częstochowa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Wisla Plock are averaging 2.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.67 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa in 67%.
Defensively: Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Early Season
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Wisla Plock or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Wisla Plock go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 7-1 on 5 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wisla Plock have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Raków Częstochowa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Wisla Plock
1
Draws
3
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Raków Częstochowa?
From 7 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 3, Raków Częstochowa have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 1-2 Wisla Plock.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 33%, Raków Częstochowa 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Wisla Plock and 100% for Raków Częstochowa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Raków Częstochowa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 67% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Wisla Plock's matches and 100% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Wisla Plock and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wisla Plock and Raków Częstochowa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock and Raków Częstochowa finished level at 1-1 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.81 xG and Raków Częstochowa 0.98 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Wisla Plock fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 1.21 / defence 0.90 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.97 / defence 1.31, drawn from 5/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 55% | Draw 26% | Raków Częstochowa 19%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 67%, Raków Częstochowa 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 2.00 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wisla Plock managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Raków Częstochowa conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.