Slask Wroclaw 1-0 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Slask Wroclaw take on Legia Warszawa.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Slask Wroclaw and Legia Warszawa meet at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Slask Wroclaw (all games): 2W 4D 0L across 6 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.67 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Slask Wroclaw have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slask Wroclaw's form when playing at home: 0W 3D 0L across 3 games at Stadion Miejski this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.67 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Miejski this season.
Legia Warszawa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 1W 0D 2L from 3 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.67 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Slask Wroclaw — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slask Wroclaw 75% versus Legia Warszawa 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Slask Wroclaw 25% | Legia Warszawa 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.09 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.854 / defence 1.124 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.834 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.087 / away 1.126. Data: 6 Slask Wroclaw games / 4 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 33% | Draw 36% | Legia Warszawa 31%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 3.03 | Draw 2.78 | Legia Warszawa 3.23. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Slask Wroclaw 67% | Legia Warszawa 33%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 33% | Draw 36% | Legia Warszawa 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.09 / Legia Warszawa 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.854 / def 1.124 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.834 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.087 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Legia Warszawa xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warszawa?
Slask Wroclaw 1 - 0 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 33% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 31% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Legia Warszawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Legia Warszawa in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 2W-4D-0L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 2W-0D-2L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Slask Wroclaw's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Legia Warszawa's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (0.83x) against Slask Wroclaw's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 6/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.01
36%
2.81
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.15
1.05
Legia Warszawa xG
3.01
33%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
12%
8.65
10%
9.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.05 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Slask Wroclaw come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 3D 0L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L), a run that reads W-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Slask Wroclaw against 1.50 for Legia Warszawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Legia Warszawa in 25%.
Defensively: Legia Warszawa in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Early Season
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 3D 0L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
Have Slask Wroclaw or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slask Wroclaw have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slask Wroclaw won 4-0 on 21 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slask Wroclaw have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Slask Wroclaw
3
Draws
3
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Legia Warszawa?
From 8 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 2, Legia Warszawa have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Legia Warszawa 3-1 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Slask Wroclaw and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slask Wroclaw see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 75%, Legia Warszawa 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Slask Wroclaw and 25% for Legia Warszawa.
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Slask Wroclaw's recent matches and 25% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 25% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Slask Wroclaw have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slask Wroclaw edge out Legia Warszawa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw beat Legia Warszawa 1-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.09 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.05 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Legia Warszawa landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.85 / defence 1.12 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.83 / defence 1.18, drawn from 6/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 33% | Draw 36% | Legia Warszawa 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Slask Wroclaw win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 25%, Legia Warszawa 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.50 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slask Wroclaw win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.