Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 38%, yet the head-to-head data favours Pogon Szczecin — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin welcome Pogon Szczecin to KGHM Zaglebie Arena in Ekstraklasa (matchday 33). Kick-off is Friday 15 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Pogon Szczecin — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Zaglebie Lubin) versus 1.30 (Pogon Szczecin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
Pogon Szczecin have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against 2 for Zaglebie Lubin.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Nov 2025, ended Zaglebie Lubin 1–5 Pogon Szczecin — a Pogon Szczecin win.
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Zaglebie Lubin trading profile (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 50% versus Pogon Szczecin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 47% | Pogon Szczecin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.14 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.781 / defence 0.856 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.010 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.101. Zaglebie Lubin's attack rating of 0.781 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.14. Data: built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 66 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 66.
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 38% | Draw 34% | Pogon Szczecin 28%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.64 | Draw 2.94 | Pogon Szczecin 3.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zaglebie Lubin are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 home games and Pogon Szczecin's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zaglebie Lubin 20% (last 10 home games) | Pogon Szczecin 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 33 | Venue: KGHM Zaglebie Arena • Kick-off: Friday 15 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 38% | Draw 34% | Pogon Szczecin 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.14 / Pogon Szczecin 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.781 / def 0.856 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.010 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Pogon Szczecin xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin FAQs
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Friday 15 May 2026 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Zaglebie Lubin 0 - 1 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 33) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 38% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zaglebie Lubin's attack at 0.78x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 66 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
38%
2.64
34%
2.94
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.09
0.95
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.64
38%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
9%
11.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 0.95 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 66 games, going 23W 15D 28L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.50 PPG from 66 outings (29W 12D 25L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.27 PPG, Pogon Szczecin on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 13W 9D 11L across their last 33 home games, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 0.88 points per game from their last 33 away games (7W 8D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pogon Szczecin's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zaglebie Lubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.58 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
Zaglebie Lubin (Home) vs Pogon Szczecin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin Form FAQs
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 23W 15D 28L in their last 66 games (1.27 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 29W 12D 25L in their last 66 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.45 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Nov 2025, when Pogon Szczecin won Pogon Szczecin 5-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Zaglebie Lubin
2
Draws
6
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, Pogon Szczecin have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 48%, Pogon Szczecin 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 48% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 27% of games; Pogon Szczecin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 54% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 48% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 76% of Pogon Szczecin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pogon Szczecin defy the odds to beat Zaglebie Lubin 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.14 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.95 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zaglebie Lubin fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.78 / defence 0.86 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.01 / defence 1.05, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 38% | Draw 34% | Pogon Szczecin 28%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Pogon Szczecin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 47%, Pogon Szczecin 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.27 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.