Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin host Cracovia Krakow at KGHM Zaglebie Arena in Ekstraklasa (matchday 31). Kick-off is Sunday 3 May 2026 at 14:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Zaglebie Lubin — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Cracovia Krakow have recorded 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Zaglebie Lubin have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Zaglebie Lubin's 30% BTTS rate and Cracovia Krakow's 30% (from Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 home games and Cracovia Krakow's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Cracovia Krakow have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 8 H2H matches against 1 for Zaglebie Lubin.
Scoring has been limited in the 8 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2025, ended Zaglebie Lubin 0–0 Cracovia Krakow — a draw.
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 52% versus Cracovia Krakow 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 48% | Cracovia Krakow 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Zaglebie Lubin surrender their half-time lead 39% of the time, while Cracovia Krakow have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 53% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.36 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.840 / defence 0.897 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.789 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.116. Cracovia Krakow's attack rating of 0.789 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Data: built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 64 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 64.
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 49% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 21%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.03 | Draw 3.34 | Cracovia Krakow 4.81. Zaglebie Lubin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record in our data (4 wins to 1), but Zaglebie Lubin carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zaglebie Lubin at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 home games and Cracovia Krakow's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zaglebie Lubin 30% (last 10 home games) | Cracovia Krakow 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 31 | Venue: KGHM Zaglebie Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 14:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 49% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.36 / Cracovia Krakow 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.840 / def 0.897 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.789 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Cracovia Krakow xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow FAQs
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 14:45 UK time on Sunday 3 May 2026 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Zaglebie Lubin 0 - 0 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 31) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 49% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 64 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
49%
2.03
30%
3.34
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.15
0.79
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
5%
18.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 0.79 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zaglebie Lubin's recent record stands at 22W 14D 28L from 64 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 23W 20D 21L across 64 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.25 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zaglebie Lubin have managed 13W 8D 11L from their last 32 home games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 13W 7D 12L across their last 32 away games, a 1.44 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.45 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow in 64%.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
Zaglebie Lubin (Home) vs Cracovia Krakow (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow Form FAQs
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 22W 14D 28L in their last 64 games (1.25 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 23W 20D 21L in their last 64 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.47 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zaglebie Lubin
4
Draws
5
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Cracovia Krakow 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 50%, Cracovia Krakow 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 56% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 56% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 56% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 69% of Cracovia Krakow's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Zaglebie Lubin's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow finished level at 0-0 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.36 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.79 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.84 / defence 0.90 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.79 / defence 1.11, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 49% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 21%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 48%, Cracovia Krakow 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.25 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.