Cracovia Krakow 1-1 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 37%, yet in-form Pogon Szczecin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pogon Szczecin make the trip to Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego to face Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 19:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cracovia Krakow have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pogon Szczecin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Pogon Szczecin are 0.90 PPG clear of Cracovia Krakow in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.60 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Pogon Szczecin, who have claimed 5 wins from 8 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Pogon Szczecin have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Cracovia Krakow — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 64% versus Pogon Szczecin 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 56% | Pogon Szczecin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.24 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.938 / defence 1.088 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.930 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.155. Data: 63 Cracovia Krakow games / 63 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 37% | Draw 30% | Pogon Szczecin 33%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Pogon Szczecin 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pogon Szczecin (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Cracovia Krakow 60% | Pogon Szczecin 30%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 37% | Draw 30% | Pogon Szczecin 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.24 / Pogon Szczecin 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.938 / def 1.088 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.930 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Pogon Szczecin xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 19:15 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Cracovia Krakow 1 - 1 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 37% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (8 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 1W | Draws 2 | Pogon Szczecin 5W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (0.93x) against Cracovia Krakow's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
37%
2.74
30%
3.32
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.40
1.17
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
11%
8.81
10%
10.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.6 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.17 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cracovia Krakow's recent record stands at 23W 19D 21L from 63 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Pogon Szczecin, meanwhile, have gone 28W 11D 24L across 63 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Cracovia Krakow against 1.51 for Pogon Szczecin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cracovia Krakow have managed 10W 12D 9L from 31 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pogon Szczecin's away record stands at 7W 7D 17L across 31 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.51 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pogon Szczecin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.56 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 23W 19D 21L in their last 63 games (1.40 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 28W 11D 24L in their last 63 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.35 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 3 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 1-5 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cracovia Krakow have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Cracovia Krakow
3
Draws
6
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, Pogon Szczecin have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 0-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 71%, Pogon Szczecin 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Cracovia Krakow) and 48% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Pogon Szczecin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 52% of Pogon Szczecin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 48% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.24 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.17 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.94 / defence 1.09 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.93 / defence 0.94, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 37% | Draw 30% | Pogon Szczecin 33%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 56%, Pogon Szczecin 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.40 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.