Górnik Łęczna 3-2 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wisla Plock at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Plock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Górnik Łęczna and Wisla Plock meet at Stadion Górnik in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Monday 13 September 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Górnik Łęczna (all games): 0W 2D 4L across 6 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.17 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.17 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Górnik Łęczna have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Górnik Łęczna have posted 0W 1D 2L at Stadion Górnik — 0.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Wisla Plock have collected 1.17 PPG across 6 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 1D 3L. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.17. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wisla Plock's away record: 0W 0D 3L from 3 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 1.17 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Wisla Plock are 0.84 PPG clear of Górnik Łęczna in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.17 vs 0.33). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Górnik Łęczna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Wisla Plock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Górnik Łęczna 50% versus Wisla Plock 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Górnik Łęczna 50% | Wisla Plock 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Górnik Łęczna 1.14 xG and Wisla Plock 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Górnik Łęczna attack 0.767 / defence 1.584 | Wisla Plock attack 0.838 / defence 1.380. League average goals — home 1.073 / away 1.140. Górnik Łęczna's attack strength of 0.767 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Wisla Plock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.380 — this is suppressing Górnik Łęczna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Górnik Łęczna games / 6 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 28% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 45%. Fair-value odds: Górnik Łęczna 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Wisla Plock 2.22. Wisla Plock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wisla Plock are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Górnik Łęczna 67% | Wisla Plock 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Górnik • Kick-off: Monday 13 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 28% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Górnik Łęczna 1.14 / Wisla Plock 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Górnik Łęczna attack 0.767 / def 1.584 | Wisla Plock attack 0.838 / def 1.380 | league avg home 1.073 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Górnik Łęczna xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Wisla Plock xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 13 September 2021 at Stadion Górnik.
What was the final score in Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Plock?
Górnik Łęczna 3 - 2 Wisla Plock.
Where is Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Górnik.
What competition is Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Plock part of?
Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Górnik Łęczna a 28% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Górnik Łęczna and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Górnik Łęczna and Wisla Plock?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Górnik Łęczna and Wisla Plock in?
Górnik Łęczna (all comps): 0W-2D-4L in 6 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.17 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Wisla Plock (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.17 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Górnik Łęczna's attack rating (0.77) and Wisla Plock's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Wisla Plock's attack (0.84x) against Górnik Łęczna's defence (1.58x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
28%
3.58
27%
3.75
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Górnik Łęczna xG
Total xG
2.65
1.51
Wisla Plock xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
6%
16.27
15%
6.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.7 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Górnik Łęczna and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Górnik Łęczna and 1.51 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Górnik Łęczna's recent record stands at 0W 2D 4L from 6 games, a 0.33 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Górnik Łęczna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wisla Plock, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 3L across 6 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wisla Plock by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Górnik Łęczna heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Górnik Łęczna have managed 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wisla Plock's away record stands at 0W 0D 3L across 3 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Górnik Łęczna are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.50 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Górnik Łęczna
Early Season
Wisla Plock
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Górnik Łęczna and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Górnik Łęczna have gone 0W 2D 4L in their last 6 games (0.33 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Górnik Łęczna at home or Wisla Plock away?
Górnik Łęczna's home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Górnik Łęczna at home: 0.33 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Górnik Łęczna or Wisla Plock been keeping clean sheets recently?
Górnik Łęczna have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Wisla Plock in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Górnik Łęczna
0
Draws
1
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Górnik Łęczna and Wisla Plock?
From 2 meetings on record, Górnik Łęczna have won 1, Wisla Plock have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Górnik Łęczna and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2022, when Wisla Plock 3-1 Górnik Łęczna.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Górnik Łęczna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Górnik Łęczna 67%, Wisla Plock 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Górnik Łęczna) and 33% (Wisla Plock).
On the defensive side: Górnik Łęczna have failed to score in 33% of games; Wisla Plock in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Górnik Łęczna home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Górnik Łęczna play Wisla Plock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Górnik Łęczna's recent matches and 33% of Wisla Plock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Górnik Łęczna's recent games and 33% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Górnik Łęczna and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Górnik Łęczna have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Górnik Łęczna defy the odds to beat Wisla Plock 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Górnik Łęczna beat Wisla Plock 3-2 at Stadion Górnik, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Górnik Łęczna 1.14 xG and Wisla Plock 1.51 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Górnik Łęczna beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Górnik Łęczna attack 0.77 / defence 1.58 against Wisla Plock attack 0.84 / defence 1.38, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Górnik Łęczna 28% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 45%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Górnik Łęczna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Górnik Łęczna 50%, Wisla Plock 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Górnik Łęczna's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with Górnik Łęczna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Górnik Łęczna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.