Warta Poznań 0-2 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Warta Poznań at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Warta Poznań vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Warta Poznań host Legia Warszawa at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Warta Poznań have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 outings — a 1.67 PPG return. Last five: D D W. They are averaging 2.33 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Warta Poznań have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 1W 0D 1L from 2 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.67 PPG (Warta Poznań) versus 1.50 (Legia Warszawa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 1.41 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.915 / defence 1.137 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.837 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.134 / away 1.130. Legia Warszawa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing Warta Poznań's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Warta Poznań games / 2 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 44% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 28%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Legia Warszawa 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Warta Poznań as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Warta Poznań offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 44% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Warta Poznań 1.41 / Legia Warszawa 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.915 / def 1.137 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.837 / def 1.357 | league avg home 1.134 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Warta Poznań (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Legia Warszawa xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Legia Warszawa?
Warta Poznań 0 - 2 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Warta Poznań vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 44% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Warta Poznań the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Warta Poznań and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Legia Warszawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Warta Poznań and Legia Warszawa in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 1W-2D-0L in 3 | 1.67 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Warta Poznań's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Legia Warszawa's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Warta Poznań's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/2 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Warta Poznań Win
44%
2.26
28%
3.63
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.48
1.07
Legia Warszawa xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
7%
14.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.6 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.07 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Warta Poznań's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Warta Poznań, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Legia Warszawa, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Warta Poznań by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Legia Warszawa heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Warta Poznań are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Legia Warszawa in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Early Season
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Warta Poznań or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Warta Poznań's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Warta Poznań
1
Draws
3
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Legia Warszawa?
From 6 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 2, Legia Warszawa have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2024, when Warta Poznań 0-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 50% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Warta Poznań vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 50% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Warta Poznań.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Warta Poznań 0-2 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 1.41 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.07 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Warta Poznań fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Legia Warszawa outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.92 / defence 1.14 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.84 / defence 1.36, drawn from 3/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 44% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 28%, with Warta Poznań to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Legia Warszawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 50%, Legia Warszawa 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Warta Poznań arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Legia Warszawa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Warta Poznań managed 0 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Legia Warszawa scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.