Raków Częstochowa 1-0 Nieciecza – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Raków Częstochowa (43%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Raków Częstochowa face Nieciecza.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Raków Częstochowa and Nieciecza meet at zondacrypto Arena in Ekstraklasa (matchday 22). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Raków Częstochowa have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Raków Częstochowa's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Nieciecza's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Nieciecza away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Raków Częstochowa's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Nieciecza's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record in our data favours Raków Częstochowa, who have won 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against Nieciecza — Nieciecza have 0 wins, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2025, ended Raków Częstochowa 3–2 Nieciecza — a Raków Częstochowa win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Raków Częstochowa and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 4.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading Data

Raków Częstochowa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

Nieciecza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 52% versus Nieciecza 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 48% | Nieciecza 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.33 xG and Nieciecza 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.762 / defence 0.876 | Nieciecza attack 0.944 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.161. Raków Częstochowa's attack rating of 0.762 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.33. Nieciecza's defence rating of 1.229 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Raków Częstochowa's projected output up. Data: built from Raków Częstochowa's last 55 games and Nieciecza's last 21.

Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 43% | Draw 32% | Nieciecza 25%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.32 | Draw 3.13 | Nieciecza 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Raków Częstochowa 50% (last 10 home games) | Nieciecza 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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