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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Nieciecza host Radomiak Radom at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 March 2026 at 11:15 UTC.

Form Guide

Nieciecza — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nieciecza, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Nieciecza at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nieciecza at 1.20 PPG versus Radomiak Radom's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Nieciecza register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Radomiak Radom in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Nieciecza have won 0, Radomiak Radom 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Nieciecza in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nieciecza 64% and Radomiak Radom 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nieciecza 46% | Radomiak Radom 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nieciecza 1.16 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nieciecza attack 0.774 / defence 1.255 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.992 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.155. Nieciecza's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Nieciecza games / 55 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Nieciecza 29% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 42%. Fair-value odds: Nieciecza 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Radomiak Radom 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Nieciecza 60% | Radomiak Radom 80% BTTS from recent games.

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