Radomiak Radom 1-3 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 35%, yet in-form Lech Poznan provide a compelling counter-argument — this Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Lech Poznan travel to Stadion im. Braci Czachorów to take on Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa (matchday 33). The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 May 2026 at 20:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Radomiak Radom stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Radomiak Radom's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Lech Poznan have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Lech Poznan have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Form points away from home here. Lech Poznan's 2.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Radomiak Radom's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
Lech Poznan have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Radomiak Radom.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2025, ended Radomiak Radom 1–4 Lech Poznan — a Lech Poznan win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Lech Poznan have won 4 of 8 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Lech Poznan in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 68% and Lech Poznan 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 59% | Lech Poznan 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.08 xG and Lech Poznan 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.107 / defence 0.966 | Lech Poznan attack 0.979 / defence 0.706. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.113. Lech Poznan bring a tight defence (rating 0.706, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Radomiak Radom's projected output down. Data: built from Radomiak Radom's last 66 games and Lech Poznan's last 66.
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 35% | Draw 32% | Lech Poznan 33%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.89 | Draw 3.09 | Lech Poznan 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lech Poznan (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Radomiak Radom's last 10 home games and Lech Poznan's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Radomiak Radom 60% (last 10 home games) | Lech Poznan 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 33 | Venue: Stadion im. Braci Czachorów • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 20:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 35% | Draw 32% | Lech Poznan 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Radomiak Radom 1.08 / Lech Poznan 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.107 / def 0.966 | Lech Poznan attack 0.979 / def 0.706 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Lech Poznan xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan FAQs
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 20:15 UK time on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 3 Lech Poznan.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 33) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 35% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 1.11x the league average against Lech Poznan's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lech Poznan's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Radomiak Radom's last 66 games and Lech Poznan's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
35%
2.89
32%
3.09
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.13
1.05
Lech Poznan xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
12%
8.28
11%
8.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.05 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 22W 19D 25L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Lech Poznan's form line: 37W 15D 14L from 66 games, 1.91 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Lech Poznan are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Radomiak Radom.
Venue Form
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 1.64 PPG from their last 33 home games (15W 9D 9L).
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 15W 9D 9L from their last 33 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.89 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
Lech Poznan
Current Season
Radomiak Radom (Home) vs Lech Poznan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
Lech Poznan
Current Season
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan Form FAQs
What form are Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 22W 19D 25L in their last 66 games (1.29 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 37W 15D 14L in their last 66 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Lech Poznan away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.64 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Lech Poznan have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Sep 2026, when Lech Poznan won Lech Poznan 5-1 Radomiak Radom.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Lech Poznan specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
6
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Radomiak Radom have won 1, Lech Poznan have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Lech Poznan 5-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 70%, Lech Poznan 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Radomiak Radom) and 48% (Lech Poznan).
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Radomiak Radom's games and 46% of Lech Poznan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 48% of Lech Poznan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 76% of Lech Poznan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lech Poznan cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lech Poznan beat Radomiak Radom 1-3 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.08 xG and Lech Poznan 1.05 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lech Poznan outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.11 / defence 0.97 against Lech Poznan attack 0.98 / defence 0.71, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 35% | Draw 32% | Lech Poznan 33%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Lech Poznan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 59%, Lech Poznan 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.