Nieciecza 0-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nieciecza vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nieciecza host Cracovia Krakow at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 2 February 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nieciecza stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nieciecza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nieciecza's home record at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza: 2W 2D 5L from 9 Ekstraklasa appearances (0.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nieciecza at 1.00 PPG versus Cracovia Krakow's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Nieciecza, 2 for Cracovia Krakow and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2025, ended 0–2 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Nieciecza in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nieciecza 67% versus Cracovia Krakow 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nieciecza 56% | Cracovia Krakow 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nieciecza 1.18 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nieciecza attack 0.836 / defence 1.293 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.930 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.246. Data: 18 Nieciecza games / 52 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nieciecza 28% | Draw 28% | Cracovia Krakow 43%. Fair-value odds: Nieciecza 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Cracovia Krakow 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nieciecza 67% | Cracovia Krakow 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nieciecza vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza • Kick-off: Monday 2 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nieciecza 28% | Draw 28% | Cracovia Krakow 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Nieciecza 1.18 / Cracovia Krakow 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Nieciecza attack 0.836 / def 1.293 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.930 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.592 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Nieciecza xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Cracovia Krakow xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nieciecza vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Nieciecza vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 2 February 2026 at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.
What was the final score in Nieciecza vs Cracovia Krakow?
Nieciecza 0 - 1 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Nieciecza vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.
What competition is Nieciecza vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Nieciecza vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Nieciecza vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Nieciecza a 28% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nieciecza vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Nieciecza and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Nieciecza vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (3 meetings): Nieciecza 1W | Draws 0 | Cracovia Krakow 2W.
What form are Nieciecza and Cracovia Krakow in?
Nieciecza (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nieciecza's attack rating (0.84) and Cracovia Krakow's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Nieciecza's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
28%
3.51
28%
3.53
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Nieciecza xG
Total xG
2.68
1.50
Cracovia Krakow xG
3.51
28%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
6%
15.70
13%
7.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nieciecza vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Nieciecza and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Nieciecza and 1.50 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Nieciecza vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nieciecza come into this having played 18 games, going 5W 4D 9L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Nieciecza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cracovia Krakow sit at 1.50 PPG from 18 outings (7W 6D 5L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Nieciecza — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Nieciecza's home form reads 2W 2D 5L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Cracovia Krakow have taken 1.22 points per game from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Nieciecza are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.39 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nieciecza have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nieciecza
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nieciecza and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Nieciecza have gone 5W 4D 9L in their last 18 games (1.06 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 7W 6D 5L in their last 18 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nieciecza at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Cracovia Krakow's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nieciecza at home: 0.89 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Nieciecza or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nieciecza have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cracovia Krakow go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Nieciecza's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nieciecza
0
Draws
3
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Cracovia Krakow?
From 4 meetings on record, Nieciecza have won 1, Cracovia Krakow have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nieciecza and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Nieciecza 0-1 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Nieciecza and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nieciecza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nieciecza 67%, Cracovia Krakow 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Nieciecza and 67% for Cracovia Krakow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 44%; Cracovia Krakow in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nieciecza home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nieciecza play Cracovia Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Nieciecza's games and 44% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nieciecza vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Nieciecza's matches and 67% of Cracovia Krakow's.
Do Nieciecza and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Nieciecza have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cracovia Krakow edge out Nieciecza 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Nieciecza 0-1 at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.18 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.50 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nieciecza fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 0.84 / defence 1.29 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.93 / defence 0.89, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 28% | Draw 28% | Cracovia Krakow 43%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 56%, Cracovia Krakow 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nieciecza's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cracovia Krakow arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Nieciecza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.