Radomiak Radom 3-1 Arka Gdynia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom and Arka Gdynia meet at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 5 March 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Radomiak Radom's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów than their overall form suggests.
Arka Gdynia have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arka Gdynia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arka Gdynia away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.40 for Arka Gdynia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Radomiak Radom lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Arka Gdynia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 73% and Arka Gdynia 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 64% | Arka Gdynia 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 2.14 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.120 / defence 0.980 | Arka Gdynia attack 0.576 / defence 1.338. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.169. Arka Gdynia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.338 — this is suppressing Radomiak Radom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Radomiak Radom games / 22 Arka Gdynia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 70% | Draw 20% | Arka Gdynia 9%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 1.43 | Draw 5.00 | Arka Gdynia 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Radomiak Radom (70%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 60% | Arka Gdynia 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion im. Braci Czachorów • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Mar 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 70% | Draw 20% | Arka Gdynia 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 44% | xG Radomiak Radom 2.14 / Arka Gdynia 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.120 / def 0.980 | Arka Gdynia attack 0.576 / def 1.338 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Arka Gdynia xG
44%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 5 March 2026 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia?
Radomiak Radom 3 - 1 Arka Gdynia.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 70% chance of winning, Arka Gdynia a 9% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Arka Gdynia will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Arka Gdynia?
Record (1 meetings): Radomiak Radom 0W | Draws 1 | Arka Gdynia 0W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Arka Gdynia in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Arka Gdynia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Radomiak Radom's attack rating (1.12) and Arka Gdynia's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 2.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Arka Gdynia's attack (0.58x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 56/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 3-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
70%
1.42
20%
4.90
9%
10.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
3 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.80
0.66
Arka Gdynia xG
1.42
70%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
10.98
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
12%
8.47
Win to Nil
36%
2.75
1%
93.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.9 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Arka Gdynia expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 0.66 for Arka Gdynia, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 7W 8D 7L from 22 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arka Gdynia, meanwhile, have gone 7W 5D 10L across 22 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Arka Gdynia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.18 for Arka Gdynia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 6W 2D 2L from 10 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Radomiak Radom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Arka Gdynia's away record stands at 0W 1D 9L across 10 trips, a 0.10 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Arka Gdynia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Arka Gdynia are on 0.95 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Arka Gdynia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Arka Gdynia in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 7W 8D 7L in their last 22 games (1.32 PPG), while Arka Gdynia have gone 7W 5D 10L in their last 22 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Arka Gdynia away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 2.00 PPG; Arka Gdynia away: 0.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 5 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
0
Arka Gdynia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Arka Gdynia?
From 2 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 1, Arka Gdynia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Arka Gdynia last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2026, when Radomiak Radom 3-1 Arka Gdynia.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Arka Gdynia?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Arka Gdynia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 60%, Arka Gdynia 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Radomiak Radom) and 40% (Arka Gdynia).
On the defensive side: Arka Gdynia in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Arka Gdynia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Arka Gdynia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 20% of Arka Gdynia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 40% of Arka Gdynia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Arka Gdynia tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Arka Gdynia in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Arka Gdynia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Arka Gdynia 3-1 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 2.14 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.66 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.12 / defence 0.98 against Arka Gdynia attack 0.58 / defence 1.34, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 70% | Draw 20% | Arka Gdynia 9%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 64%, Arka Gdynia 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Arka Gdynia's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.32 PPG, Arka Gdynia 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.