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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Radomiak Radom and Arka Gdynia meet at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 5 March 2026 at 19:30 UTC.

Current Form

Radomiak Radom's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów than their overall form suggests.

Arka Gdynia have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arka Gdynia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Arka Gdynia away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.40 for Arka Gdynia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Radomiak Radom lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

Arka Gdynia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 41% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 73% and Arka Gdynia 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 64% | Arka Gdynia 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 2.14 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.120 / defence 0.980 | Arka Gdynia attack 0.576 / defence 1.338. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.169. Arka Gdynia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.338 — this is suppressing Radomiak Radom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Radomiak Radom games / 22 Arka Gdynia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 70% | Draw 20% | Arka Gdynia 9%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 1.43 | Draw 5.00 | Arka Gdynia 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Radomiak Radom (70%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 60% | Arka Gdynia 20% BTTS from recent games.

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