Lechia Gdansk 1-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lechia Gdansk at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lechia Gdansk face Piast Gliwice.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Piast Gliwice make the trip to Polsat Plus Arena to face Lechia Gdansk in Ekstraklasa (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Monday 20 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Lechia Gdansk have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lechia Gdansk's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Piast Gliwice (all games): 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Piast Gliwice's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Lechia Gdansk, 1.50 for Piast Gliwice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Lechia Gdansk's last 10 home games and Piast Gliwice's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Lechia Gdansk's games and 80% of Piast Gliwice's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for Lechia Gdansk, 2 for Piast Gliwice and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.9 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2025, ended Lechia Gdansk 2–1 Piast Gliwice — a Lechia Gdansk win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Lechia Gdansk half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Piast Gliwice half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 68% versus Piast Gliwice 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 63% | Piast Gliwice 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 2.31 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.398 / defence 1.121 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.165 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.134. Lechia Gdansk carry an above-average attack rating of 1.398 — their 2.31 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Lechia Gdansk's last 62 games and Piast Gliwice's last 62.
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 56% | Draw 21% | Piast Gliwice 24%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 1.79 | Draw 4.88 | Piast Gliwice 4.21. The model has a clear lean to Lechia Gdansk (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (2.31 / 1.48) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lechia Gdansk at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Lechia Gdansk's last 10 home games and Piast Gliwice's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lechia Gdansk 80% (last 10 home games) | Piast Gliwice 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 29 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena • Kick-off: Monday 20 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 56% | Draw 21% | Piast Gliwice 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% (Under 27%) | BTTS Yes 70% (No 30%) | xG Lechia Gdansk 2.31 / Piast Gliwice 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.398 / def 1.121 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.165 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Piast Gliwice xG
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice FAQs
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 20 April 2026 at Polsat Plus Arena.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice?
Lechia Gdansk 1 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 29) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 56% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lechia Gdansk's attack rating (1.40) and Piast Gliwice's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 2.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Piast Gliwice's attack (1.17x) against Lechia Gdansk's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from Lechia Gdansk's last 62 games and Piast Gliwice's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 3-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
56%
1.79
21%
4.88
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
3.79
1.48
Piast Gliwice xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.88
21%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.33
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
10%
10.04
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
2%
42.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.48 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lechia Gdansk's recent record stands at 22W 13D 27L from 62 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 24L across 62 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Lechia Gdansk against 1.29 for Piast Gliwice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lechia Gdansk have managed 15W 5D 11L from their last 31 home games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Piast Gliwice's away record stands at 11W 6D 14L across their last 31 away games, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.15 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Current Season
Piast Gliwice
Current Season
Lechia Gdansk (Home) vs Piast Gliwice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lechia Gdansk
Current Season
Piast Gliwice
Current Season
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice Form FAQs
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 22W 13D 27L in their last 62 games (1.27 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 21W 17D 24L in their last 62 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 1.61 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 20 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lechia Gdansk have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Lechia Gdansk have won 4, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 April 2026: Lechia Gdansk 1-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice?
Lechia Gdansk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 61%, Piast Gliwice 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Lechia Gdansk) and 48% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Lechia Gdansk's games and 55% of Piast Gliwice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 48% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 74% of Piast Gliwice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice finished level at 1-1 at Polsat Plus Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 2.31 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.48 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.40 / defence 1.12 against Piast Gliwice attack 1.17 / defence 1.14, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 56% | Draw 21% | Piast Gliwice 24%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 63%, Piast Gliwice 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.27 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.