Pogon Szczecin 1-2 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lech Poznan at 34% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Lech Poznan travel to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to take on Pogon Szczecin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026, 19:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Pogon Szczecin have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pogon Szczecin have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lech Poznan — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pogon Szczecin 1.60 PPG, Lech Poznan 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Lech Poznan have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 9 encounters against Pogon Szczecin's 1 victories.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Lech Poznan have won 4 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Lech Poznan trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 48% versus Lech Poznan 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 53% | Lech Poznan 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.03 xG and Lech Poznan 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 0.963 / defence 1.041 | Lech Poznan attack 0.926 / defence 0.750. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.087. Lech Poznan's defence strength of 0.750 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 62 Pogon Szczecin games / 62 Lech Poznan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 34% | Draw 32% | Lech Poznan 34%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Lech Poznan 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Pogon Szczecin 70% | Lech Poznan 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 34% | Draw 32% | Lech Poznan 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.03 / Lech Poznan 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 0.963 / def 1.041 | Lech Poznan attack 0.926 / def 0.750 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Lech Poznan xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 19:15 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan?
Pogon Szczecin 1 - 2 Lech Poznan.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 34% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan?
Record (9 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 1W | Draws 4 | Lech Poznan 4W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Lech Poznan (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Lech Poznan's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Lech Poznan's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
34%
2.96
32%
3.15
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.08
1.05
Lech Poznan xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
12%
8.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.05 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 28W 11D 23L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Lech Poznan's form line: 34W 14D 14L from 62 games, 1.87 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pogon Szczecin on 1.53 PPG, Lech Poznan on 1.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 2.16 PPG from 31 outings (21W 4D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 13W 9D 9L from 31 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.89 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
Lech Poznan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 28W 11D 23L in their last 62 games (1.53 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 34W 14D 14L in their last 62 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Lech Poznan away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.16 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Pogon Szczecin won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Lech Poznan specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pogon Szczecin
4
Draws
5
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 1, Lech Poznan have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 1-2 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 45%, Lech Poznan 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Pogon Szczecin) and 48% (Lech Poznan).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Lech Poznan in 45%; Lech Poznan in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Lech Poznan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 45% of Lech Poznan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 48% of Lech Poznan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Lech Poznan in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lech Poznan edge out Pogon Szczecin 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lech Poznan beat Pogon Szczecin 1-2 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.03 xG and Lech Poznan 1.05 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lech Poznan outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 0.96 / defence 1.04 against Lech Poznan attack 0.93 / defence 0.75, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 34% | Draw 32% | Lech Poznan 34%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Lech Poznan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 53%, Lech Poznan 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.53 PPG, Lech Poznan 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lech Poznan win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.