Piast Gliwice 4-1 Arka Gdynia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Arka Gdynia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice host Arka Gdynia at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 27 April 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Piast Gliwice have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arka Gdynia stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Arka Gdynia have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Piast Gliwice at 1.30 PPG versus Arka Gdynia's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Piast Gliwice, 1 for Arka Gdynia and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Arka Gdynia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Arka Gdynia in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 55% versus Arka Gdynia 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 52% | Arka Gdynia 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.75 xG and Arka Gdynia 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.881 / defence 1.133 | Arka Gdynia attack 0.862 / defence 1.402. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.126. Arka Gdynia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.402 — this is suppressing Piast Gliwice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Piast Gliwice games / 29 Arka Gdynia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 52% | Draw 26% | Arka Gdynia 23%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Arka Gdynia 4.35. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Piast Gliwice as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Piast Gliwice 40% | Arka Gdynia 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Arka Gdynia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach • Kick-off: Monday 27 Apr 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 52% | Draw 26% | Arka Gdynia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.75 / Arka Gdynia 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.881 / def 1.133 | Arka Gdynia attack 0.862 / def 1.402 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Arka Gdynia xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Arka Gdynia kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Arka Gdynia kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 27 April 2026 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Arka Gdynia?
Piast Gliwice 4 - 1 Arka Gdynia.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Arka Gdynia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Arka Gdynia part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Arka Gdynia is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Arka Gdynia?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 52% chance of winning, Arka Gdynia a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Arka Gdynia?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Arka Gdynia will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Arka Gdynia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Arka Gdynia?
Record (1 meetings): Piast Gliwice 0W | Draws 0 | Arka Gdynia 1W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Arka Gdynia in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Arka Gdynia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Piast Gliwice's attack at 0.88x the league average against Arka Gdynia's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Arka Gdynia's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
52%
1.94
26%
3.90
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.85
1.10
Arka Gdynia xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
4%
25.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.1 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Arka Gdynia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Arka Gdynia expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.10 for Arka Gdynia, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Arka Gdynia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 29 outings, Piast Gliwice have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 10W 6D 13L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Arka Gdynia's form line: 9W 7D 13L from 29 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.24 PPG, Arka Gdynia on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Piast Gliwice have posted 1.29 PPG from 14 outings (5W 3D 6L).
On the road, Arka Gdynia have gone 1W 2D 11L from 14 away games — 0.36 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Arka Gdynia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Arka Gdynia are on 1.03 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Current Season
Arka Gdynia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Arka Gdynia in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 10W 6D 13L in their last 29 games (1.24 PPG), while Arka Gdynia have gone 9W 7D 13L in their last 29 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Arka Gdynia away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.29 PPG; Arka Gdynia away: 0.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Piast Gliwice
0
Draws
1
Arka Gdynia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Arka Gdynia?
From 2 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 1, Arka Gdynia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Arka Gdynia last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Piast Gliwice 4-1 Arka Gdynia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Arka Gdynia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 43%, Arka Gdynia 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Piast Gliwice) and 57% (Arka Gdynia).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 36% of games; Arka Gdynia in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Arka Gdynia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Arka Gdynia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 29% of Arka Gdynia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Arka Gdynia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 57% of Arka Gdynia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Arka Gdynia tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Arka Gdynia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Piast Gliwice run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Arka Gdynia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Arka Gdynia 4-1 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.75 xG and Arka Gdynia 1.10 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Piast Gliwice beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.88 / defence 1.13 against Arka Gdynia attack 0.86 / defence 1.40, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 52% | Draw 26% | Arka Gdynia 23%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 52%, Arka Gdynia 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Arka Gdynia's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.24 PPG, Arka Gdynia 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.