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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Arka Gdynia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Piast Gliwice host Arka Gdynia at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 27 April 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Piast Gliwice — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Piast Gliwice have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Arka Gdynia stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

On the road, Arka Gdynia have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Piast Gliwice at 1.30 PPG versus Arka Gdynia's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Piast Gliwice, 1 for Arka Gdynia and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Arka Gdynia winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Arka Gdynia in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 55% versus Arka Gdynia 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 52% | Arka Gdynia 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.75 xG and Arka Gdynia 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.881 / defence 1.133 | Arka Gdynia attack 0.862 / defence 1.402. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.126. Arka Gdynia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.402 — this is suppressing Piast Gliwice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Piast Gliwice games / 29 Arka Gdynia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 52% | Draw 26% | Arka Gdynia 23%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Arka Gdynia 4.35. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Piast Gliwice as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Piast Gliwice 40% | Arka Gdynia 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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