Arka Gdynia 0-3 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Arka Gdynia at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jagiellonia make the trip to Stadion Miejski w Gdyni to face Arka Gdynia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Arka Gdynia (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Arka Gdynia have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Arka Gdynia are significantly better at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni than their overall form suggests.
Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jagiellonia's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Arka Gdynia against 1.10 for Jagiellonia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Arka Gdynia register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Jagiellonia in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Arka Gdynia lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 0–4 with Jagiellonia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Arka Gdynia — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Jagiellonia — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arka Gdynia 50% versus Jagiellonia 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arka Gdynia 61% | Jagiellonia 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arka Gdynia 1.38 xG and Jagiellonia 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arka Gdynia attack 1.053 / defence 1.068 | Jagiellonia attack 0.908 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.116. Data: 28 Arka Gdynia games / 62 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arka Gdynia 43% | Draw 28% | Jagiellonia 29%. Fair-value odds: Arka Gdynia 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Jagiellonia 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Arka Gdynia as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arka Gdynia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arka Gdynia 80% | Jagiellonia 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gdyni • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arka Gdynia 43% | Draw 28% | Jagiellonia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Arka Gdynia 1.38 / Jagiellonia 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Arka Gdynia attack 1.053 / def 1.068 | Jagiellonia attack 0.908 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Arka Gdynia (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Arka Gdynia xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Jagiellonia xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni.
What was the final score in Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia?
Arka Gdynia 0 - 3 Jagiellonia.
Where is Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni.
What competition is Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia part of?
Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Arka Gdynia a 43% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Arka Gdynia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Arka Gdynia and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arka Gdynia and Jagiellonia?
Record (1 meetings): Arka Gdynia 0W | Draws 0 | Jagiellonia 1W.
What form are Arka Gdynia and Jagiellonia in?
Arka Gdynia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Jagiellonia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Arka Gdynia's attack rating (1.05) and Jagiellonia's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (0.91x) against Arka Gdynia's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 28/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arka Gdynia Win
43%
2.33
28%
3.55
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Arka Gdynia xG
Total xG
2.46
1.08
Jagiellonia xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
7%
13.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Arka Gdynia and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Arka Gdynia and 1.08 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Arka Gdynia come into this having played 28 games, going 9W 7D 12L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.54 PPG from 28 outings (11W 10D 7L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Arka Gdynia against 1.54 for Jagiellonia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Arka Gdynia's home form reads 8W 5D 1L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Arka Gdynia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 1.36 points per game from 14 outings (4W 7D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arka Gdynia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Arka Gdynia are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.57 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 68%.
Last 28 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arka Gdynia
Current Season
Jagiellonia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arka Gdynia and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Arka Gdynia have gone 9W 7D 12L in their last 28 games (1.21 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 11W 10D 7L in their last 28 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arka Gdynia at home or Jagiellonia away?
Arka Gdynia's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arka Gdynia at home: 2.07 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Arka Gdynia
0
Draws
2
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arka Gdynia and Jagiellonia?
From 2 meetings on record, Arka Gdynia have won 0, Jagiellonia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Arka Gdynia and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Arka Gdynia 0-3 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Arka Gdynia and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Arka Gdynia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Arka Gdynia, 64% for Jagiellonia — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Arka Gdynia) and 50% (Jagiellonia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arka Gdynia home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arka Gdynia play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Arka Gdynia's games and 64% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Arka Gdynia's matches and 50% of Jagiellonia's.
Do Arka Gdynia and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Arka Gdynia have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jagiellonia run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Arka Gdynia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Arka Gdynia 0-3 at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arka Gdynia 1.38 xG and Jagiellonia 1.08 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Arka Gdynia fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Jagiellonia outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arka Gdynia attack 1.05 / defence 1.07 against Jagiellonia attack 0.91 / defence 0.90, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arka Gdynia 43% | Draw 28% | Jagiellonia 29%, with Arka Gdynia to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Jagiellonia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arka Gdynia 61%, Jagiellonia 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arka Gdynia's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arka Gdynia 1.21 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.