🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Pogon Szczecin travel to Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach to take on Piast Gliwice. The game is scheduled for Monday 13 April 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Piast Gliwice have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Piast Gliwice's home record at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Pogon Szczecin away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Piast Gliwice 1.50 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Pogon Szczecin 4, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 9 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Pogon Szczecin winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Piast Gliwice trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Pogon Szczecin trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 49% versus Pogon Szczecin 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 43% | Pogon Szczecin 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.44 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.976 / defence 1.069 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.853 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.086. Data: 61 Piast Gliwice games / 61 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 46% | Draw 29% | Pogon Szczecin 25%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Pogon Szczecin 4.00. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Piast Gliwice are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 50% | Pogon Szczecin 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights