Radomiak Radom 2-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Widzew Łódź make the trip to Stadion im. Braci Czachorów to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 13:45 UTC.
Form
Radomiak Radom (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów than their overall form suggests.
Widzew Łódź have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Widzew Łódź have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Widzew Łódź are 0.50 PPG clear of Radomiak Radom in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Radomiak Radom, 3 for Widzew Łódź and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.9 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2025, ended 2–3 with Widzew Łódź winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 69% versus Widzew Łódź 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 60% | Widzew Łódź 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.15 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.952 / defence 0.948 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.891 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.097. Data: 62 Radomiak Radom games / 62 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 40% | Draw 32% | Widzew Łódź 28%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Widzew Łódź 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Widzew Łódź (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 50% | Widzew Łódź 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion im. Braci Czachorów • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 40% | Draw 32% | Widzew Łódź 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.15 / Widzew Łódź 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.952 / def 0.948 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.891 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Widzew Łódź xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Radomiak Radom 2 - 1 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 40% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź?
Record (7 meetings): Radomiak Radom 3W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 3W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 0.95x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (0.89x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
40%
2.52
32%
3.13
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.08
0.93
Widzew Łódź xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
9%
11.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 11.6 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 0.93 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 19W 18D 25L from 62 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Widzew Łódź, meanwhile, have gone 20W 13D 29L across 62 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-D-D-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.18 for Widzew Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 13W 9D 9L from 31 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Widzew Łódź's away record stands at 6W 7D 18L across 31 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.15 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 19W 18D 25L in their last 62 games (1.21 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 20W 13D 29L in their last 62 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.55 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Radomiak Radom won 0-3 on 2 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
3
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 4, Widzew Łódź have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Radomiak Radom 2-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 68%, Widzew Łódź 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Radomiak Radom) and 52% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Radomiak Radom's games and 58% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 52% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Radomiak Radom edge out Widzew Łódź 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Widzew Łódź 2-1 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.15 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.93 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.95 / defence 0.95 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.89 / defence 0.84, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 40% | Draw 32% | Widzew Łódź 28%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 60%, Widzew Łódź 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.21 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.