Korona Kielce 1-2 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Korona Kielce at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Korona Kielce face Zaglebie Lubin.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Korona Kielce welcome Zaglebie Lubin to Exbud Arena in Ekstraklasa (matchday 20). Kick-off is Friday 6 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Korona Kielce — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Korona Kielce's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Zaglebie Lubin stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Korona Kielce) versus 1.50 (Zaglebie Lubin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Korona Kielce have won 2, Zaglebie Lubin 1, with 4 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Aug 2025, ended Korona Kielce 1–1 Zaglebie Lubin — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Korona Kielce trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Korona Kielce 55% versus Zaglebie Lubin 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Korona Kielce 38% | Zaglebie Lubin 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 1.43 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 0.885 / defence 0.992 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.888 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.223. Data: built from Korona Kielce's last 53 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 53.
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 44% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 28%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 2.25 | Draw 3.62 | Zaglebie Lubin 3.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Korona Kielce as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Korona Kielce offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Korona Kielce 40% (last 10 home games) | Zaglebie Lubin 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 20 | Venue: Exbud Arena • Kick-off: Friday 6 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 44% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Korona Kielce 1.43 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 0.885 / def 0.992 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.888 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Korona Kielce (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Zaglebie Lubin xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Korona Kielce vs Zaglebie Lubin FAQs
What time does Korona Kielce vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 6 February 2026 at Exbud Arena.
What was the final score in Korona Kielce vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Korona Kielce 1 - 2 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Exbud Arena.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Korona Kielce vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 20) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 44% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Korona Kielce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Korona Kielce and Zaglebie Lubin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Korona Kielce vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Korona Kielce's attack at 0.89x the league average against Zaglebie Lubin's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Korona Kielce's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Korona Kielce's last 53 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Korona Kielce Win
44%
2.25
28%
3.62
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
2.50
1.08
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
7%
14.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.6 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Korona Kielce vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 1.08 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Korona Kielce's recent record stands at 18W 18D 17L from 53 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Zaglebie Lubin, meanwhile, have gone 17W 13D 23L across 53 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Korona Kielce on 1.36 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Korona Kielce have managed 12W 5D 9L from their last 26 home games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record stands at 6W 6D 14L across their last 26 away games, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Korona Kielce come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Korona Kielce are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.21 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Korona Kielce (Home) vs Zaglebie Lubin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Korona Kielce
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Korona Kielce vs Zaglebie Lubin Form FAQs
What form are Korona Kielce and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 18W 18D 17L in their last 53 games (1.36 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 17W 13D 23L in their last 53 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Korona Kielce's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 1.58 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 2 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Zaglebie Lubin have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Korona Kielce's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Korona Kielce
4
Draws
3
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Korona Kielce vs Zaglebie Lubin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Zaglebie Lubin?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Korona Kielce have won 2, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2026: Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Korona Kielce and Zaglebie Lubin?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Korona Kielce 46%, Zaglebie Lubin 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Korona Kielce) and 42% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Korona Kielce keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Korona Kielce have failed to score in 27% of games; Zaglebie Lubin in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Korona Kielce vs Zaglebie Lubin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Korona Kielce and Zaglebie Lubin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Korona Kielce's recent matches and 54% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Korona Kielce and Zaglebie Lubin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Korona Kielce's recent games and 42% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Korona Kielce and Zaglebie Lubin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Korona Kielce's recent matches and 73% of Zaglebie Lubin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zaglebie Lubin defy the odds to beat Korona Kielce 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Korona Kielce 1-2 at Exbud Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.43 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.08 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.89 / defence 0.99 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.89 / defence 1.02, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 44% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 28%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Zaglebie Lubin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 38%, Zaglebie Lubin 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Korona Kielce's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.36 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.