Jagiellonia 1-1 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 63% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Chorten Arena to face Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 13:45 UK time.
Current Form
Jagiellonia's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Jagiellonia have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Jagiellonia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W D D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Jagiellonia's last 10 home games and Radomiak Radom's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Jagiellonia's games and 80% of Radomiak Radom's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Jagiellonia have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins, with Radomiak Radom managing 1 and 3 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2025, ended Jagiellonia 2–1 Radomiak Radom — a Jagiellonia win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Jagiellonia and goals — 5 wins from 9 H2H matches and an average of 3.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading
Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 96% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 63% and Radomiak Radom 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 56% | Radomiak Radom 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 2.34 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.426 / defence 1.011 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.002 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.144. Jagiellonia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.426 — their 2.34 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Jagiellonia's last 54 games and Radomiak Radom's last 54.
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 63% | Draw 20% | Radomiak Radom 17%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.59 | Draw 4.90 | Radomiak Radom 5.99. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (63%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.34 / 1.16) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Jagiellonia 5 wins from 9 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.50 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Jagiellonia's last 10 home games and Radomiak Radom's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jagiellonia 70% (last 10 home games) | Radomiak Radom 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 22 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 13:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 63% | Draw 20% | Radomiak Radom 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Jagiellonia 2.34 / Radomiak Radom 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.426 / def 1.011 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.002 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Radomiak Radom xG
63%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom FAQs
What time does Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 13:45 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Chorten Arena.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Jagiellonia 1 - 1 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 22) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 63% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (1.43x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.34. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (1.00x) against Jagiellonia's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Jagiellonia's last 54 games and Radomiak Radom's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
63%
1.59
20%
4.90
17%
5.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
3.50
1.16
Radomiak Radom xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
5.99
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
10%
10.40
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
2%
62.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.16 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jagiellonia come into this having played 54 games, going 27W 16D 11L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.26 PPG from 54 outings (18W 14D 22L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Jagiellonia's home form reads 15W 6D 4L across their last 25 home games, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 0.88 points per game from their last 25 away games (5W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.54 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Radomiak Radom in 69%.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Jagiellonia (Home) vs Radomiak Radom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jagiellonia
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom Form FAQs
What form are Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 27W 16D 11L in their last 54 games (1.80 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 18W 14D 22L in their last 54 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Jagiellonia's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 2.04 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won Jagiellonia 5-0 Radomiak Radom on 2 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jagiellonia
4
Draws
1
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jagiellonia have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Jagiellonia 1-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Jagiellonia, 68% for Radomiak Radom — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Jagiellonia and 72% for Radomiak Radom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Radomiak Radom in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Jagiellonia's games and 68% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Jagiellonia's matches and 72% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 96% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 76% of Radomiak Radom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom finished level at 1-1 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 2.34 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.16 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Jagiellonia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.43 / defence 1.01 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.00 / defence 1.17, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 63% | Draw 20% | Radomiak Radom 17%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 56%, Radomiak Radom 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (54 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (54 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.