Arka Gdynia 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arka Gdynia vs Zaglebie Lubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Zaglebie Lubin travel to Stadion Miejski w Gdyni to take on Arka Gdynia in Ekstraklasa (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 7 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Arka Gdynia stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Arka Gdynia have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Arka Gdynia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Zaglebie Lubin — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Zaglebie Lubin's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Arka Gdynia's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Arka Gdynia's games and 60% of Zaglebie Lubin's (from Arka Gdynia's last 10 home games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Arka Gdynia, 1 for Zaglebie Lubin and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2025, ended Arka Gdynia 0–4 Zaglebie Lubin — a Zaglebie Lubin win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Arka Gdynia in-play tendencies (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arka Gdynia 46% versus Zaglebie Lubin 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arka Gdynia 58% | Zaglebie Lubin 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arka Gdynia 1.15 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arka Gdynia attack 0.943 / defence 1.085 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.114 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.101. Data: built from Arka Gdynia's last 26 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 60.
Result probabilities: Arka Gdynia 31% | Draw 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 39%. Fair-value odds: Arka Gdynia 3.28 | Draw 3.30 | Zaglebie Lubin 2.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Arka Gdynia 70% (last 10 home games) | Zaglebie Lubin 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arka Gdynia vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 27 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gdyni • Kick-off: Tuesday 7 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arka Gdynia 31% | Draw 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Arka Gdynia 1.15 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Arka Gdynia attack 0.943 / def 1.085 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.114 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Arka Gdynia xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Zaglebie Lubin xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Arka Gdynia vs Zaglebie Lubin FAQs
What time does Arka Gdynia vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Arka Gdynia vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Tuesday 7 April 2026 at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni.
What was the final score in Arka Gdynia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Arka Gdynia 3 - 1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Arka Gdynia vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni.
What competition is Arka Gdynia vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Arka Gdynia vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 27) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Arka Gdynia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Arka Gdynia a 31% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arka Gdynia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Arka Gdynia and Zaglebie Lubin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Arka Gdynia vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Arka Gdynia's attack rating (0.94) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Arka Gdynia's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Arka Gdynia's last 26 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
31%
3.28
30%
3.30
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Arka Gdynia xG
Total xG
2.48
1.33
Zaglebie Lubin xG
3.28
31%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
8%
12.41
12%
8.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.1 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Arka Gdynia vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Arka Gdynia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Arka Gdynia and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Arka Gdynia and 1.33 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Arka Gdynia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Arka Gdynia come into this having played 26 games, going 8W 6D 12L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.58 PPG from 26 outings (11W 8D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Zaglebie Lubin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Arka Gdynia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Arka Gdynia's home form reads 7W 5D 1L across their last 13 home games, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Arka Gdynia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 1.38 points per game from their last 13 away games (5W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arka Gdynia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Arka Gdynia are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.54 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arka Gdynia
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Arka Gdynia (Home) vs Zaglebie Lubin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Arka Gdynia
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Arka Gdynia vs Zaglebie Lubin Form FAQs
What form are Arka Gdynia and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Arka Gdynia have gone 8W 6D 12L in their last 26 games (1.15 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 11W 8D 7L in their last 26 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arka Gdynia at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Arka Gdynia's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arka Gdynia at home: 2.00 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Arka Gdynia or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arka Gdynia have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2025. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 7 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Arka Gdynia
0
Draws
1
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Arka Gdynia vs Zaglebie Lubin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Arka Gdynia and Zaglebie Lubin?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Arka Gdynia have won 1, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Arka Gdynia and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 April 2026: Arka Gdynia 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Arka Gdynia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Arka Gdynia at 69%, Zaglebie Lubin at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Arka Gdynia) and 54% (Zaglebie Lubin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arka Gdynia keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arka Gdynia home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Arka Gdynia vs Zaglebie Lubin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Arka Gdynia and Zaglebie Lubin matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Arka Gdynia's games and 62% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Arka Gdynia and Zaglebie Lubin matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Arka Gdynia's matches and 54% of Zaglebie Lubin's.
Do Arka Gdynia and Zaglebie Lubin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Arka Gdynia's recent matches and 69% of Zaglebie Lubin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arka Gdynia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arka Gdynia beat Zaglebie Lubin 3-1 at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arka Gdynia 1.15 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.33 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Arka Gdynia beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arka Gdynia attack 0.94 / defence 1.08 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.11 / defence 0.85, drawn from 26/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arka Gdynia 31% | Draw 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 39%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Arka Gdynia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arka Gdynia 58%, Zaglebie Lubin 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arka Gdynia's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Zaglebie Lubin arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Arka Gdynia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.