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Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Radomiak Radom travel to KGHM Zaglebie Arena to take on Zaglebie Lubin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026, 16:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Zaglebie Lubin at KGHM Zaglebie Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at KGHM Zaglebie Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Radomiak Radom — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Zaglebie Lubin are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Zaglebie Lubin have won 5, Radomiak Radom 4, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 1–3 with Radomiak Radom winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zaglebie Lubin 52% and Radomiak Radom 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 49% | Radomiak Radom 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.51 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.915 / defence 0.877 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.974 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.066. Data: 61 Zaglebie Lubin games / 61 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 50% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 22%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Radomiak Radom 4.55. Zaglebie Lubin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Zaglebie Lubin 30% | Radomiak Radom 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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