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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 27 as Pogon Szczecin welcome Legia Warszawa to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. Kick-off is set for Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Pogon Szczecin at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Legia Warszawa's form when playing away from home: 0W 7D 3L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pogon Szczecin at 1.40 PPG versus Legia Warszawa's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Pogon Szczecin, 2 for Legia Warszawa and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Legia Warszawa winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 50% versus Legia Warszawa 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 55% | Legia Warszawa 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.64 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.088 / defence 0.960 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.078 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.084. Data: 60 Pogon Szczecin games / 60 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 48% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 25%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Legia Warszawa 4.00. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 80% | Legia Warszawa 90% BTTS from recent games.

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