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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 27 as Raków Częstochowa welcome Widzew Łódź to zondacrypto Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 April 2026 at 13:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 5W 3D 2L at zondacrypto Arena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at zondacrypto Arena. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Raków Częstochowa are significantly better at zondacrypto Arena than their overall form suggests.

Widzew Łódź — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Raków Częstochowa 1.20 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Raków Częstochowa have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while Widzew Łódź have managed just 0 wins.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Raków Częstochowa winning.

The historical record gives Raków Częstochowa a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Widzew Łódź in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 47% versus Widzew Łódź 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 42% | Widzew Łódź 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.01 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.848 / defence 0.786 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.866 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.100. Raków Częstochowa's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Raków Częstochowa games / 60 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 40% | Draw 35% | Widzew Łódź 25%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.50 | Draw 2.86 | Widzew Łódź 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Widzew Łódź's lower xG of 0.75 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 1.76 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 40% | Widzew Łódź 40% BTTS from recent games.

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