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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Motor Lublin make the trip to Stadion im. Braci Czachorów to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 13:45 UTC.

Current Form

Radomiak Radom's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Radomiak Radom have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów than their overall form suggests.

Motor Lublin (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Motor Lublin, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Motor Lublin have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Motor Lublin arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Radomiak Radom, 2 for Motor Lublin and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Motor Lublin — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 70% and Motor Lublin 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 62% | Motor Lublin 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.62 xG and Motor Lublin 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.011 / defence 0.998 | Motor Lublin attack 1.104 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.086. Data: 60 Radomiak Radom games / 60 Motor Lublin games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 46% | Draw 27% | Motor Lublin 27%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Motor Lublin 3.70. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Motor Lublin (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 50% | Motor Lublin 60% BTTS from recent games.

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