🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Lechia Gdansk at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Korona Kielce travel to Polsat Plus Arena to take on Lechia Gdansk. The game is scheduled for Monday 6 April 2026, 19:15 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Lechia Gdansk stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Lechia Gdansk's home record at Polsat Plus Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Korona Kielce have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Korona Kielce have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Lechia Gdansk carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Lechia Gdansk, 3 for Korona Kielce and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 0–3 with Korona Kielce winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Lechia Gdansk trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Korona Kielce trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lechia Gdansk 68% and Korona Kielce 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 63% | Korona Kielce 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.70 xG and Korona Kielce 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.268 / defence 1.084 | Korona Kielce attack 1.022 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.093. Lechia Gdansk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — their λ of 1.70 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 60 Lechia Gdansk games / 60 Korona Kielce games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 47% | Draw 27% | Korona Kielce 26%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Korona Kielce 3.85. Lechia Gdansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

Korona Kielce lead the H2H ledger, but Lechia Gdansk carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

On the Poisson output, Lechia Gdansk are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lechia Gdansk 70% | Korona Kielce 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights