Viking 1-1 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours ODD Ballklubb (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Viking face ODD Ballklubb.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Viking host ODD Ballklubb at SR-Bank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at SR-Bank Arena, Viking have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
ODD Ballklubb's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour ODD Ballklubb — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Viking register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, ODD Ballklubb in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
ODD Ballklubb have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Viking's 1 victories.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. ODD Ballklubb have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Viking trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 75% and ODD Ballklubb 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 71% | ODD Ballklubb 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.33 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 0.760 / defence 1.174 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.006 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.466. Viking's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Viking games / 59 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 30% | Draw 24% | ODD Ballklubb 47%. Fair-value odds: Viking 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | ODD Ballklubb 2.13. ODD Ballklubb hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Viking 70% | ODD Ballklubb 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 30% | Draw 24% | ODD Ballklubb 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Viking 1.33 / ODD Ballklubb 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 0.760 / def 1.174 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.006 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.802 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.73
ODD Ballklubb xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Viking vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Viking 1 - 1 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Viking vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Viking vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 30% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Viking and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (5 meetings): Viking 1W | Draws 0 | ODD Ballklubb 4W.
What form are Viking and ODD Ballklubb in?
Viking (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Viking's attack at 0.76x the league average against ODD Ballklubb's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
30%
3.38
24%
4.25
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Viking xG
Total xG
3.06
1.73
ODD Ballklubb xG
3.38
30%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
5%
19.12
12%
8.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.8 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Viking and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Viking and 1.73 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Viking come into this having played 59 games, going 26W 13D 20L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, ODD Ballklubb sit at 1.31 PPG from 59 outings (21W 14D 24L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Viking on 1.54 PPG, ODD Ballklubb on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Viking's home form reads 14W 7D 8L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, ODD Ballklubb have taken 1.14 points per game from 29 outings (8W 9D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Viking are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.46 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; ODD Ballklubb in 61%.
Last 59 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 26W 13D 20L in their last 59 games (1.54 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 21W 14D 24L in their last 59 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Viking's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.69 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 October 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2020, when ODD Ballklubb won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Viking's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Viking
4
Draws
4
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 2, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Viking and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2024, when Viking 3-3 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between Viking and ODD Ballklubb?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 76%, ODD Ballklubb 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Viking and 52% for ODD Ballklubb. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play ODD Ballklubb?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Viking's games and 48% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Viking's matches and 52% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Viking and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Viking and ODD Ballklubb share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking and ODD Ballklubb finished level at 1-1 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.33 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.73 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 0.76 / defence 1.17 against ODD Ballklubb attack 1.01 / defence 0.97, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 30% | Draw 24% | ODD Ballklubb 47%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 71%, ODD Ballklubb 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.54 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.