Kristiansund BK 1-1 jerv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kristiansund BK at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kristiansund BK vs jerv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 30 as Kristiansund BK welcome jerv to Kristiansund Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 November 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Kristiansund BK have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kristiansund BK have posted 4W 3D 3L at Kristiansund Stadion — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
jerv — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
jerv's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Kristiansund BK carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Kristiansund BK, 1 for jerv and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with jerv winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Kristiansund BK trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
jerv trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kristiansund BK 63% and jerv 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Kristiansund BK 67% | jerv 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 2.80 xG and jerv 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 1.133 / defence 1.125 | jerv attack 0.870 / defence 1.372. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.466. jerv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.372 — this is suppressing Kristiansund BK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Kristiansund BK games / 29 jerv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 66% | Draw 16% | jerv 18%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 1.52 | Draw 6.25 | jerv 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Kristiansund BK (66%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.23. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.23 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.80 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kristiansund BK as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.23 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 80% | jerv 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs jerv | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 66% | Draw 16% | jerv 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 72% | xG Kristiansund BK 2.80 / jerv 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 1.133 / def 1.125 | jerv attack 0.870 / def 1.372 | league avg home 1.802 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.80
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.44
jerv xG
72%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs jerv kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs jerv kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs jerv?
Kristiansund BK 1 - 1 jerv.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs jerv being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs jerv part of?
Kristiansund BK vs jerv is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs jerv?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 66% chance of winning, jerv a 18% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs jerv?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Kristiansund BK and jerv will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs jerv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and jerv?
Record (1 meetings): Kristiansund BK 0W | Draws 0 | jerv 1W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and jerv in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. jerv (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kristiansund BK's attack rating (1.13) and jerv's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 2.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, jerv's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.1%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.6%), 1-1 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
66%
1.52
16%
6.06
18%
5.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
1 – 1
5.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.80
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
4.23
1.44
jerv xG
1.52
66%
Home win
6.06
16%
Draw
5.71
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.51
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
6%
16.44
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
1%
93.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs jerv?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and jerv expected to score?
The model projects 2.80 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.44 for jerv, a combined total of 4.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs jerv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kristiansund BK come into this having played 30 games, going 6W 7D 17L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, jerv sit at 0.67 PPG from 30 outings (5W 5D 20L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kristiansund BK on 0.83 PPG, jerv on 0.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kristiansund BK's home form reads 5W 4D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.83 PPG overall — Kristiansund BK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, jerv have taken 0.40 points per game from 15 outings (1W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kristiansund BK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; jerv are on 1.10 scored and 2.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
jerv
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and jerv in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 6W 7D 17L in their last 30 games (0.83 PPG), while jerv have gone 5W 5D 20L in their last 30 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or jerv away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.27 PPG; jerv away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Kristiansund BK
1
Draws
1
jerv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and jerv?
From 2 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 0, jerv have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and jerv last play each other?
They last met on 13 November 2022, when Kristiansund BK 1-1 jerv.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and jerv?
jerv have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
jerv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kristiansund BK at 73%, jerv at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Kristiansund BK and 87% for jerv. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: jerv in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / jerv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play jerv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Kristiansund BK's games and 67% of jerv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs jerv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 87% of jerv's.
Do Kristiansund BK and jerv tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, jerv in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kristiansund BK and jerv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK and jerv finished level at 1-1 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 2.80 xG and jerv 1.44 xG, a combined 4.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Kristiansund BK fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 1.13 / defence 1.12 against jerv attack 0.87 / defence 1.37, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 66% | Draw 16% | jerv 18%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 67%, jerv 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
jerv's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kristiansund BK 0.83 PPG, jerv 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. jerv (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.