ODD Ballklubb 5-1 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stromsgodset make the trip to Skagerak Arena to face ODD Ballklubb in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 November 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
ODD Ballklubb (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
ODD Ballklubb's home record at Skagerak Arena: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Skagerak Arena this season.
Stromsgodset have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Stromsgodset have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in ODD Ballklubb's favour (2.10 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 5 meetings, Stromsgodset have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to ODD Ballklubb's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Jul 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Stromsgodset have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
ODD Ballklubb half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Stromsgodset half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 60% versus Stromsgodset 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 62% | Stromsgodset 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.75 xG and Stromsgodset 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.889 / defence 0.956 | Stromsgodset attack 0.672 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.764 / away 1.411. Data: 58 ODD Ballklubb games / 58 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 57% | Draw 23% | Stromsgodset 19%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Stromsgodset 5.26. The model has a clear lean to ODD Ballklubb (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Stromsgodset lead the H2H ledger, but ODD Ballklubb carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is ODD Ballklubb at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: ODD Ballklubb 70% | Stromsgodset 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 57% | Draw 23% | Stromsgodset 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 49% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.75 / Stromsgodset 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.889 / def 0.956 | Stromsgodset attack 0.672 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.764 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Stromsgodset xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
ODD Ballklubb 5 - 1 Stromsgodset.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 57% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset?
Record (5 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 0W | Draws 1 | Stromsgodset 4W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Stromsgodset (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 0.89x the league average against Stromsgodset's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stromsgodset's attack (0.67x) against ODD Ballklubb's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
57%
1.74
23%
4.27
19%
5.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.66
0.91
Stromsgodset xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
5.19
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
3%
29.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.1 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 0.91 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
ODD Ballklubb's recent record stands at 20W 14D 24L from 58 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Stromsgodset, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 25L across 58 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for ODD Ballklubb against 1.19 for Stromsgodset. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, ODD Ballklubb have managed 12W 5D 12L from 29 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stromsgodset's away record stands at 3W 9D 17L across 29 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stromsgodset's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.45 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ODD Ballklubb have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Stromsgodset
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 20W 14D 24L in their last 58 games (1.28 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 18W 15D 25L in their last 58 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Stromsgodset away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.41 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ODD Ballklubb won 5-1 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ODD Ballklubb have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
3
Draws
5
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Stromsgodset have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 2-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset?
Stromsgodset have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 72%, Stromsgodset 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for ODD Ballklubb and 52% for Stromsgodset. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Stromsgodset?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 41% of Stromsgodset's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 52% of Stromsgodset's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant ODD Ballklubb run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Stromsgodset.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Stromsgodset 5-1 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.75 xG and Stromsgodset 0.91 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.89 / defence 0.96 against Stromsgodset attack 0.67 / defence 1.12, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 57% | Draw 23% | Stromsgodset 19%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 62%, Stromsgodset 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.28 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ODD Ballklubb win broke the near-deadlock. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.